Running Bet

We've had windy conditions across South Florida over the last few days, and even though it's been tough on the beaches and its brought some showers on shore, we have to say "Thank you" to that high.

You can see from the image above, the clear air over us is due to the high. Its been acting as a shield protecting us from any and all Tropical Activity.

"Omar" battered Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a Cat 3 with 155 mph on Thursday Morning but now its weakening and heading out to the middle of the Atlantic.

Now for the inside stuff: There is a front over Louisiana (Shown above as a blue line with triangles attached ) heading our way. Some models have this front stalling over South Florida over the second half of the weekend, while others show this front pushing all the way into Cuba.

There is not allot of moisture ahead of the front so outside of a few showers we don't expect heavy rain or for that matter a big change in temps. What it may do, if it does clear us, is to possibly bring an end to the rainy season. Dry air behind the front should close the door on all the tropical rain.

Since the models are split here is our take:

Brent and I : Think the front will make it all the way into the Caribbean as a big high builds behind it and pushes it south.

Vivian: Thinks the front will stall out.

Brent says: it will move through I say: it will move through

Vivian takes the (Unpopular ) view, that the front doesn't look like it has any real support on the back side and should stall over us.

She cites the local weather discussion:

THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. A LACK OF REAL PUSH WILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT TO OUR REGION AND THEN PRETTY
MUCH STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE GFS DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BUT KEEPS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 10K FT SO ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FOR S FLA MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LOW TOPPED SHOWERS FORMING OVER US.

Vivian says: NO WAY

So if Brent and I are right - Vivian has to pay us each $1 . (((( Right now it looks as if we may owe Vivian some dough !! ))