Friday, November 7, 2008

In the Cone? Out of the Cone?


South Florida now out of the Cone of Concern!
Still,Paloma may affect us next week !


Over the last day or so, most forecast models have been in fair agreement that Paloma will steer away from South Florida. Their reasoning is that a front traveling through the north end of the state will move into the Caribbean by Sunday and push Paloma into Cuba and the Bahamas. But now there is a new wrinkle.

The thinking is that after the system leaves Cuba, it will encounter some very strong upper level winds that should weaken Paloma considerably. But after that, some models hint at tossing the remnants of Paloma back over us.

On Saturday, Paloma reached Cat 4 status as it churned through the Caribbean Sea.  Cuba is next on its hit list, but what happens after that is still unclear. 

As of Saturday morning, South Florida was in the cone of concern, but by evening we were out. Depending on what happens on Sunday we could be back in.  As stated above, it may not be a storm when it gets here, but it may bring us some windy conditions and tropical rains.

If this does happen, we may see more clouds and a better chance of rain by the middle of next week.

Everyone in the weather office is pouring over the models.... we'll bring you the latest as we get it.

At the moment, it appears the front that is protecting us from Paloma will weaken by Monday. High pressure should build after that. Paloma will be left hanging over the Bahamas. As high pressure builds over the Southeastern U.S.A, the winds coming in from the ocean will help drag what is out there of Paloma back toward us.

The Caymans: As we get info on storm related damages, we'll post them.

Some history: 1932 Cuba Hurricane hit the island on November 9th.

The 1932 Cuba hurricane was a powerful and deadly late-season hurricane . It was the tenth tropical storm, fifth hurricane and fourth major hurricane of that year. One of the strongest storms ever recorded in the month of November, it devastated eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, resulting in at least 3,103 deaths, making it one of the deadliest hurricanes of the 20th century.

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