Caribbean Low

Much is being talked about the broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea next to Nicaragua. Some folks are suggesting it could be here by next week as a stronger system, others are dismissing it entirely.

These are the facts:

• The low is causing disorganized showers and storms around the Nicaraguan coast and adjacent waters.
• It remains stuck over the area without any real steering winds
• It's also sitting over some very warm waters

Some models suggest that if it can stick around for a few more days, not move in-land, and not fall apart... it could make a move to the north.

Here is why: In the long run, the high over us is expected to get nudged towards the Bahamas by a weak cold front early next week. IF this happens, it will open a path for the low to move in our direction. Since there is plenty of warm water around it, it may gain some strength before its arrival.

Also, this time of year, climatology indicates that systems in this area tend to move north and curve our way.

This is what remains uncertain:

• Will the low survive the next few days?
• Will it more over land and fall apart?
• Will the front really push the high out of the way?

Due to all these uncertainties NHC is giving it less than a 30% chance for development in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, our friends in Central America will get plenty of rain.

Check back from time to time for the latest.