Tropics Awaken

We were watching 2 areas of disturbed weather in the Tropics: One in the Western Caribbean near Nicaragua, and the other in the middle of the Atlantic about 900 miles removed from the Cape Verde Islands.

The latter has fallen apart and is no longer being monitored for development.

The first , still has slim chances but nonetheless we will follow this one with a bit more scrutiny, here is why.

Let's review the things working against it:
Near land...this breaks off its fuel supply
Shear... strong upper level winds keeping it in check

Going for it:
Over some very warm waters.... help to fuel the system
Favorable area.... Caribbean sea is a favorable breeding ground this time of year.

Regardless of development, it will cause some heavy rain for parts of Central America.

Only one model out of the dozens and dozens show this feature heading north close to us.
Right now we just have to watch it.