The Phil Factor

Hot before Cold

2009-01-06T16:46:00.003-05:00

A cold front should make its way into South Florida by Thursday morning, but before it gets here, get ready for summer!

The local NWS office has issued this notice regarding some very hot temps in store for Wednesday:

A VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ZONES...GIVEN SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH PROGGED BY ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THIS WILL PLACE RECORD HIGHS OF 85 F IN JEOPARDY AT BOTH MIAMI/Ft. LAUDERDALE...WITH RECORD HIGH OF 86 F COMING CLOSE...BUT A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT WEST PALM BEACH.

Notice the map. The stationary front across the southeast will begin to move in the next 12 hours as the jet stream makes its move to the east coast. The tail end of the front will be across Central Florida by tomorrow afternoon. The winds ahead of the front will come out of the southwest dragging plenty of heat and humidity over our area. As mentioned above, we could see record heat and the moisture could translate into a few t-storms.

By Thursday morning, the front should clear us and the temps will cool down with the coldest readings expected by Friday morning. Lows will be in the 50's over much of South Florida.

Family Time

2008-12-19T15:59:00.002-05:00

Hey Factor Fanatics, I wish you the best of the season and much happiness as we venture into the end of one year and the start of another. Whatever your faith or tradition, may you spend it with the ones you love and cherish.

I will be doing plenty of eating and having fun over the next two weeks. I will be back on my blog and on the air on January 5th 2009.

Stay safe.

Phil

Sky Sighting

2008-12-18T18:29:00.003-05:00

It was an interesting afternoon in the weather office. We were enjoying a rather slow day when around 5 pm the phone began ringing off the hook. At first we thought we were being pranked by people suggesting they had seen a flash in the sky with a tail and a green glow around it. We dismissed the first few calls but as the afternoon progressed, the number of phone calls grew.

Vivian Gonzalez began digging by checking all the space related web sites and contacts. I checked with the local National Weather Service office just to make sure it wasn't an atmospheric phenomenon. NASA came back with nothing, and for a while we thought it may have been a jet contrail.

We finally got a call from the director of the Space Transit Planetarium, Jack Horkheimer, and he informed us that by the description given, it was most likely a "Sporadic Meteor" . As it burned off in our atmosphere it gave off that green glow. He also suggested it was probably the size of a baseball.

Thanks to all the many phone calls alerting us to the situation, and a big thank you to Jack Horkheimer for his expertise.

Where's Winter?

2008-12-17T20:01:00.002-05:00

Winter starts on Sunday, but with the way temps have been hovering in the low 80's across South Florida over the last few days, you'd think fall will never end.

The nation is split in two, basically from the 4 corners region through New England. Everyone behind this imaginary line is blasting cold with foul weather, while everyone in front is warm and mild.

Check out the latest:

Warm highs: Miami had a high of 82 on Wednesday, 81 in Ft. Lauderdale, Key West with 79. The average high for this time of year is 77. The wind coming off the ocean has kept a constant threat of rip currents at the beaches.

Indiana:- A school bus crashed in icy conditions in Frankton, Indiana on Wednesday as the nation was hit with more wintry weather. A student on board the vehicle said a car slid into the path of the bus and the vehicles collided head-on near the town of Frankton. The bus fell onto its side. Joshua Derrickson, a junior at Frankton High School, said about 40 students were on the bus.

Authorities did not immediately have information about the extent of injuries. The crash happened on a county road about 35 miles northeast of Indianapolis.

Temperatures were expected to drop below zero in at least 12 states in the Midwest and West after a band of snow and sleet fell Tuesday from Minnesota to New Hampshire.

Chicago: More than 300 flights were canceled at O'Hare International Airport and about 50 were canceled at Midway Airport, said Department of Aviation spokesman Gregg Cunningham.

Texas: Police in the northern part of the state had to close some highway overpasses because they were so slippery with ice. In parts of Oklahoma, snow froze overnight and left a glaze of ice on roads, said John Pike, a weather service meteorologist.

Arizona: Ski resorts near Flagstaff, reported 8 to 12 inches of snow Tuesday and strong rain showers covered residents in Phoenix. Flash flood watches were issued for central Arizona through Wednesday night.

In Washington state, as much as 8 inches of snow was expected north of Seattle to the Canadian border and up to 2 feet of new snow was forecast in the Cascades.

Minnesota: Some of the sharpest cold Tuesday was in Hibbing where temps bottomed out at 32 below zero and International Falls dropped to 28 below. In the middle of the state, St. Cloud fell to 24 below, breaking its old record of 21 below set in 1963.

Blackouts: New Hampshire utilities reported roughly about 106,000 homes and businesses still without power Tuesday, down from a peak of 430,000. Central Maine Power said fewer than 7,850 customers were still in the dark and a spokesman said it expected to have power restored Wednesday. About 70,000 customers are still waiting for service in Massachusetts, state officials said.
New Hampshire residents were warned Tuesday that some of them might have to wait until next week for electricity.

Winter Claims Lives

2008-12-16T21:17:00.003-05:00

A big freeze is hitting much of the nation, making roads hazardous in Texas and slowing recovery from ice storm blackouts in New England.

Temperatures have been 20 below zero and lower across the northern Plains. Some of the sharpest cold weather hit northern Minnesota, where Hibbing bottomed out at 32 below zero and International Falls dropped to 28 below.

The reason for all the nasty weather is the Jet Stream. Take a look above and you will see that over the next few days it will carve the nation in half. To the north it will be bitterly cold while mild temps will dominate the southeast.

Blocking the jet from moving east is a huge dome of high pressure sitting over Florida and the Bahamas. We don't expect this scenario to change over the next few days, so it appears warm weather will stick around for us.

A band of snow, freezing rain and sleet has also been stretching from Kansas along the Ohio Valley to Maine. The weather service has posted winter storm warnings for the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southwest.

New Mexico had numerous school closings, including those in Albuquerque. Dozens of schools have been closed in Tennessee and Kentucky. Up to a half-foot of snow has fallen in parts of Kentucky.

The wintry wave of cold and storms have been blamed in at least 14 deaths.

Safe Solar Flare?

2008-12-15T16:34:00.002-05:00

This goes completely against conventional wisdom, which said solar flares could be the end of all mankind, but guess what? New info suggests that may not be so. A NASA article explains the latest research.

Solar flares are the most powerful explosions in the solar system. Packing a punch equal to a hundred million hydrogen bombs, they obliterate everything in their immediate vicinity. Not a single atom should remain intact. At least that's how it's supposed to work.
"We've detected a stream of perfectly intact hydrogen atoms shooting out of an X-class solar flare," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. "What a surprise! These atoms could be telling us something new about what happens inside flares."

Above: The X9-class solar flare of Dec. 5, 2006, observed by the Solar X-Ray Imager aboard NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

The event occurred on Dec. 5, 2006. A large sunspot rounded the sun's eastern limb and with little warning it exploded. On the "Richter scale" of flares, which ranks X1 as a big event, the blast registered X9, making it one of the strongest flares of the past 30 years.
NASA managers braced themselves. Such a ferocious blast usually produces a blizzard of high-energy particles dangerous to both satellites and astronauts. Indeed, moments after the explosion, radio emissions from a shock wave in the sun's atmosphere signaled that a swarm of particles was on its way.

An hour later they arrived. But they were not the particles researchers expected.
NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft made the discovery: "It was a burst of hydrogen atoms," says Mewaldt. "No other elements were present, not even helium (the sun's second most abundant atomic species). Pure hydrogen streamed past the spacecraft for a full 90 minutes."
Next came more than 30 minutes of quiet. The burst subsided and STEREO's particle counters returned to low levels. The event seemed to be over when a second wave of particles enveloped the spacecraft. These were the "broken atoms" that flares are supposed to produce—protons and heavier ions such as helium, oxygen and iron. "Better late than never," he says.

Above: STEREO particle counts on Dec. 5, 2006. The vertical axis measures the angle to the sun. Note how the initial hydrogen burst arrived from a narrow angle while the ions that followed swarmed in from all directions. The "swarming action" is a result of deflections by the sun's magnetic field--a force not felt by the neutral hydrogen.

At first, this unprecedented sequence of events baffled scientists, but now Mewaldt and colleagues believe they're getting to the bottom of the mystery.
First, how did the hydrogen atoms resist destruction?
"They didn't," says Mewaldt. "We believe they began their journey to Earth in pieces, as protons and electrons. Before they escaped the sun’s atmosphere, however, some of the protons recaptured an electron, forming intact hydrogen atoms. The atoms left the sun in a fast, straight shot before they could be broken apart again." (For experts: The team believes the electrons were recaptured by some combination of radiative recombination and charge exchange.)

Second, what delayed the ions? "Simple," says Mewaldt. "Ions are electrically charged and they feel the sun's magnetic field. Solar magnetism deflects ions and slows their progress to Earth. Hydrogen atoms, on the other hand, are electrically neutral. They can shoot straight out of the sun without magnetic interference."
Imagine two runners dashing for the finish line. One (the ion) is forced to run in a zig-zag pattern with zigs and zags as wide as the orbit of Mars. The other (the hydrogen atom) runs in a straight line. Who's going to win?

"The hydrogen atoms reached Earth two hours before the ions," says Mewaldt.
Mewaldt believes that all strong flares might emit hydrogen bursts, but they simply haven't been noticed before. He's looking forward to more X-flares now that the two STEREO spacecraft are widely separated on nearly opposite sides of the Sun. (In 2006 they were still together near Earth.) STEREO-A and –B may be able to triangulate future bursts and pinpoint the source of the hydrogen. This would allow the team to test their ideas about the surprising phenomenon.
"All we need now," he says, "is some solar activity."

Moon vs Meteors

2008-12-12T16:07:00.006-05:00

WEEKEND METEORS: Earth is entering a stream of debris from extinct comet 3200 Phaethon, and this is causing the annual Geminid meteor shower. The shower is expected to peak on Dec. 13th and 14th. Normally, as many as 100 meteors per hour shoot out of the constellation Gemini, but this year a bright Moon will interfere with the display, reducing hourly counts to only 20 or so. That could still be a nice show.

For best results, watch the sky from 10 pm local time on Saturday night (Dec 13th) until dawn on Sunday morning (Dec. 14th).

BIGGEST FULL MOON OF THE YEAR: The Moon that's causing trouble for the Geminid display happens to be the biggest full Moon of 2008, as much as 14% wider and 30% brighter than lesser Moons we've seen earlier this year. An astronomer would say, this is a "perigee Moon" because it occurs at perigee, the side of the Moon's elliptical orbit closest to Earth. Go outside tonight and take a look. The meteor rate may be low, but the lunar beauty index is off the charts.

Above: In 2004, Greek amateur astronomer Anthony Ayiomamitis photographed an apogee Moon and a perigee Moon, and set the images side by side to show the difference. [Larger image] A perigee Moon brings with it extra-high "perigean tides," but this is nothing to worry about, according to NOAA. In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only a few centimeters (an inch or so) higher than usual.

Local geography can amplify the effect to about 15 centimeters (six inches)--not exactly a great flood. Okay, the Moon is 14% bigger, but can you actually tell the difference? It's tricky. There are no rulers floating in the sky to measure lunar diameters. Hanging high overhead with no reference points to provide a sense of scale, one full Moon looks much like any other.

The best time to look is when the Moon is near the horizon. That is when illusion mixes with reality to produce a truly stunning view. For reasons not fully understood by astronomers or psychologists, low-hanging Moons look unnaturally large when they beam through trees, buildings and other foreground objects.

Why not let the "Moon illusion" amplify a full Moon that's extra-big to begin with? The swollen orb rising in the east at sunset may seem so nearby, you can almost reach out and touch it. But you still won't be able to see Armstrong's footprint. Not even Hubble can do that. The Moon is 384,400 km away (on average). At that distance, the smallest things Hubble can distinguish are about 60 meters wide.

The biggest pieces of left-behind Apollo equipment are only about 9 meters across and smaller than a single pixel in a Hubble image. What you will see is the world around you. This is both the brightest and (in the northern hemisphere) the highest-riding full Moon of the year. If you go outside around midnight it will be close to overhead and act like a cosmic floodlamp making the landscape absolutely brilliant, especially if there's snow. Full moons are always high during winter and, indeed, the solstice is right around the corner on Dec. 21st. A fun experiment: Take a friend outside on Friday evening and ask if they notice anything unusual. Is the Moon big and bright enough to impress the unwary? Explain perigee later....

Temps to Drop / Moon to Grow!

2008-12-11T16:39:00.002-05:00

Pre frontal trough has moved across South Florida.

We saw pockets of heavy rain at times with some strong winds but fortunately no severe weather. The clouds will linger tonight, and during the overnight hours the actual front will cross our area.

Friday will see cooler temps and by Saturday morning the chill will take hold as temps will dip into the mid 50's.

This Friday night will also have a nice night sky surprise.... check this out courtesy NASA.

It's no illusion. Some full Moons are genuinely larger than others and this Friday's is a whopper. Why? The Moon's orbit is an ellipse with one side 50,000 km closer to Earth than the other: diagram. In the language of astronomy, the two extremes are called "apogee" (far away) and "perigee" (nearby). On Dec. 12th, the Moon becomes full a scant 4 hours after reaching perigee, making it 14% bigger and 30% brighter than lesser full Moons we've seen earlier in 2008.

Above: In 2004, Greek amateur astronomer Anthony Ayiomamitis photographed an apogee Moon and a perigee Moon, and set the images side by side to show the difference. [Larger image]
A perigee Moon brings with it extra-high "perigean tides," but this is nothing to worry about, according to NOAA. In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only a few centimeters (an inch or so) higher than usual. Local geography can amplify the effect to about 15 centimeters (six inches)--not exactly a great flood.

Okay, the Moon is 14% bigger, but can you actually tell the difference? It's tricky. There are no rulers floating in the sky to measure lunar diameters. Hanging high overhead with no reference points to provide a sense of scale, one full Moon looks much like any other.

The best time to look is when the Moon is near the horizon. That is when illusion mixes with reality to produce a truly stunning view. For reasons not fully understood by astronomers or psychologists, low-hanging Moons look unnaturally large when they beam through trees, buildings and other foreground objects. On Friday, why not let the "Moon illusion" amplify a full Moon that's extra-big to begin with? The swollen orb rising in the east at sunset may seem so nearby, you can almost reach out and touch it.

But you still won't be able to see Armstrong's footprint. Not even Hubble can do that. The Moon is 384,400 km away (on average). At that distance, the smallest things Hubble can distinguish are about 60 meters wide. The biggest pieces of left-behind Apollo equipment are only about 9 meters across and smaller than a single pixel in a Hubble image.

What you will see is the world around you. This is both the brightest and (in the northern hemisphere) the highest-riding full Moon of the year. If you go outside around midnight it will be close to overhead and act like a cosmic floodlamp making the landscape absolutely brilliant, especially if there's snow. Full moons are always high during winter and, indeed, the solstice is right around the corner on Dec. 21st.

A fun experiment: Take a friend outside on Friday evening and ask if they notice anything unusual. Is the Moon big and bright enough to impress the unwary? Explain perigee later....

Storm Center On-Call

2008-12-09T17:14:00.007-05:00

Thursday Morning Update

The Mississippi River Valley recouping after a round of nasty weather.Meteorologists say at least three tornadoes touched down in the Alexandria, Louisiana, area Tuesday night. They did not do much damage, beyond knocking down a cinder block wall and snapping some trees. The tornadoes were part of a weather system moving through the Southeast . Check out the link below for the latest storm reports from NOAA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

Item of the day: The weather office is busy following a very nasty storm system making its way into North Florida.

National Current Map: Below you can see the blue line representing the leading edge of cold air pushed east by the Jet Stream. Right over Alabama and Georgia there is a clash of atmospheric forces taking place. You have hot and cold air running into each other, plus plenty of moisture being dragged up from the Gulf of Mexico, all these are conspiring to fire up some nasty storms.

Advisories: Keep an eye on any areas shaded red - it usually indicates the possibility of severe weather.

South Florida Outlook: Models suggest that the tail end of this system could push across our area by Thursday. A pre-frontal trough may develop early in the morning making for a breezy day. Expect the clouds to build all across South Florida. If the system is still holding strong we too could see our share of thunderstorms. As of this update, there is anywhere between a 50-70% chance of rain for us on Thursday .

More updates to follow.

Meteor Explosion

2008-12-08T15:18:00.004-05:00

This is a great story about happenings in the night sky. Space weather provided the info, check out the video below it's cool.

On Dec. 6th at 1:06 a.m. MST, a meteor of stunning brightness exploded over Colorado Springs. Astronomer Chris Peterson photographed the event using a dedicated all-sky meteor camera in nearby Guffey, Colorado:

"In seven years of operation, this is the brightest fireball I've ever recorded," says Peterson. "I estimate the terminal explosion at magnitude -18, more than 100 times brighter than a full Moon."

Fireballs this bright belong to a rare category of meteors called superbolides. They are caused by small asteroids measuring a few to 10 meters in diameter and massing hundreds of metric tons. Superbolides trigger seismic detectors on the ground and produce waves of infrasound that can travel thousands of miles. Recent examples include the El Paso fireball of 1997 and the Slovenina Superbolide of 2007.

Peterson has combined images from his camera with those of another camera in New Mexico to chart the superbolide's ground track. "If the explosion produced meteorites, they are likely near the town of Penrose, CO," he says. "The terminal explosion was fairly high, at 86 km, and the meteor was moderately fast at 51 km/s. Meteors with those characteristics probably don't usually produce meteorites, but the dynamics of such a huge explosion aren't well understood, so who knows?"

More than 250 miles south of the fireball, radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft of New Mexico photographed the flash and recorded radio echoes from the superbolide's ion trail

No Water Down Under

2008-12-05T16:45:00.002-05:00

Remember this summer when Lake Okeechobbe was down, we were in a drought and water restrictions were in place? Well what if we would have run out of water? What would we have done? That scenario has become a reality in Australia.

A state in that country has been forced to purchase water for the first time ever in order to make sure they have enough. South Australia is in the middle of a terrible drought and now they have been forced to buy 61 billion gallons of water so that Adelaide, the state capital, will have enough water for 2009 even if the drought continues.

The map above shows you the area (shaded in pink) that bought the water.

The state has suffered through drought for the past five years, and water in Adelaide's storage containers and reservoirs dropped 8 percent in the last year.

South Australia receives the least rainfall of any Australian state. Adelaide, on the coast, averages 20.8 inches a year but much of the state gets less than 9.8 inches .

Residents are routinely under restrictions that limit outdoor use of water for watering lawns, washing cars or cleaning gutters. (Sound familiar?)

So where did the water come from? Authorities say the state bought 8 billion gallons of water from shared resources with other states, while 53 billion gallons was purchased on the water trading market for between 350 to 450 Australian dollars per 1000 gallons, around $250 US dollars.

At least some good can come out of Tropical Weather !

Return of the Leonids

2008-12-04T17:31:00.002-05:00

Just got this NEWS ALERT from NASA... could be really cool watching.

Astronomers from Caltech and NASA say a strong shower of Leonid meteors is coming in 2009. Their prediction follows an outburst on Nov. 17, 2008, that broke several years of "Leonid quiet" and heralds even more intense activity next November.

"On Nov. 17, 2009, we expect the Leonids to produce upwards of 500 meteors per hour," says Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "That's a very strong display."
Forecasters define a meteor storm as 1000 or more meteors per hour. That would make the 2009 Leonids "a half-storm," says Jeremie Vaubaillon of Caltech, who successfully predicted a related outburst just a few weeks ago.

Above: A composite, all-sky image of the 2008 Leonid outburst over Colorado. Credit: Chris Peterson, Cloudbait Observatory.

On Nov. 17, 2008, Earth passed through a stream of debris from comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. The gritty, dusty debris stream was laid down by the Leonids' parent comet more than five hundred years ago in 1466. Almost no one expected the old stream to produce a very strong shower, but it did. Observers in Asia and Europe counted as many as 100 meteors per hour.
Vaubaillon predicted the crossing with one-hour precision. "I have a computer program that calculates the orbits of Leonid debris streams," he explains. "It does a good job anticipating encounters even with very old streams like this one."

The Nov. 17, 2008 outburst proved that the 1466 stream is rich in meteor-producing debris, setting the stage for an even better display in 2009.

On Nov. 17, 2009, Earth will pass through the 1466 stream again, but this time closer to the center. Based on the number of meteors observed in 2008, Vaubaillon can estimate the strength of the coming display: five hundred or more Leonids per hour during a few-hour peak centered on 21:43 UT.

"Our own independent model of the debris stream agrees," says Cooke. "We predict a sub-storm level outburst on Nov. 17, 2009, peaking sometime between 21:34 and 21:44 UT."
The timing favors observers in Asia, although Cooke won't rule out a nice show over North America when darkness falls hours after the peak. "I hope so," he says. "It's a long way to Mongolia."

Winter Q & A's

2008-12-03T16:29:00.004-05:00

Winter is just around the corner

So as we fast approach winter, many kids have been asking me questions related to the season. (Must be a class project somewhere...)

Winter is one of the four seasons. Astronomically speaking, it begins on the solstice and ends on the equinox. The start of winter is usually around December 21st. It is the season with the shortest days and the lowest average temperatures. It is accompanied by snow and ice , especially in the higher latitudes . The coldest average temperatures of the season are typically experienced in January for us here in the Northern Hemisphere.

So here is my best at answering most of your questions.

How do winter storms form? Winter storms derive their energy from the clash of two air masses of different temperatures and moisture levels. Winter storms usually form when an air mass of cold, dry, Canadian air moves south and interacts with a warm, moist air mass moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. The point where these two air masses meet is called a front. If cold air advances and pushes away the warm air, it forms a cold front. When warm air advances, it rides up over the denser, cold air mass to form a warm front. If neither air mass advances, it forms a stationary front.

How is snow formed? Snow is commonly formed when water vapor undergoes deposition, which is when water vapor changes directly to ice without first becoming a liquid, high in the atmosphere at a temperature of less than 32°F and then falls to the ground.

How do blizzards form?A blizzard is a long-lasting snowstorm with very strong winds and intense snowfall. You need three things to have a blizzard; cold air at the surface, lots of moisture, and lift. Warm air must rise over cold air.

What are snowflakes? Snowflakes are made of ice crystals. Each snowflake is six-sided and made of as many as 200 ice crystals. Snowflakes form in clouds where the temperature is below freezing. The ice crystals form around tiny bits of dirt that has been carried up into the atmosphere by the wind. As the snow crystals grow, they become heavier and fall toward the ground.

What is sleet? Sleet is just rain drops that freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects. However, it can accumulate like snow and cause a hazard to motorists.

What is freezing rain? Freezing rain is just rain that falls onto a surface with a temperature below freezing. This causes it to freeze to surfaces, such as trees, cars, and roads, forming a coating or glaze of ice. Even small accumulations of ice can cause a significant hazard.

What is frost? Frost is white ice crystals that form on a surface, like the ground or leaves of a plant. Frost is created when the air temperature drops below freezing and the water vapor in the air freezes into ice crystals.

How is lake-effect snow formed? As the cold air flows over the warm lake water, the relatively warm water heats the air's bottom layer as lake moisture evaporates into the cold air. Since warm air is lighter or less dense than cold air, the heated air rises and begins to cool. As the air cools, the moisture that evaporated into it condenses and forms clouds and snow begins falling from the cloud if the air is humid enough. Cold air moves over warm water and is warmed from below. Moisture evaporates in the air. Warm moist air rises downwind of lakes and forms heavy snow.

What is a Nor'easter? Nor'easters can occur in the eastern United States any time between October and April, when moisture and cold air are plentiful. A Nor'easter is named for the winds that blow in from the northeast and drive the storm up the east coast along the Gulf Stream, a band of warm water that lies off the Atlantic coast. They are known for dumping heavy amounts of rain and snow, producing hurricane-force winds, and creating high surfs that cause severe beach erosion and coastal flooding.

What is an Alberta Clipper? An Alberta clipper is an area of low pressure that generally forms over Alberta, Canada, east of the Rocky Mountains. They develop east of the Rockies because air flowing eastward over the mountains creates favorable conditions. Once an Alberta Clipper forms it usually moves very rapidly to the southeast across the USA's northern Plains and then to the east off the mid-Atlantic Coast. Clippers usually cause only light precipitation with very few producing major snowstorms. However, if conditions are favorable, some Alberta clippers can rapidly intensify off the East Coast once the storm taps the relatively warm moist air over the Atlantic Ocean. The storms that rapidly intensify sometimes spread heavy snow over New England and southeastern Canada. Generally, the main weather features associated with Alberta clippers are some light snow and a reinforcement of cold air over the USA.

What is Wind Chill? The wind chill is the temperature your body feels when the air temperature is combined with the wind speed. The higher the wind speed the faster exposed areas of your body lose heat and the colder you feel.

Courtesy:NOAA for Kids

Carbon Sniffing Satellite?

2008-12-02T20:35:00.002-05:00

Thanks everyone for the Holiday well-wishes, I had a splendid time off with my family ( only gained 2 lbs).

On Monday I had jury duty, I was not picked but I did manage to get caught up on some movie watching. The Bucket List was very endearing.

While I was sitting waiting to see if my number would be called - I read plenty of science-geeky articles and came up with this one that was pretty interesting.

Hope you like it - its from NASA.

NASA's first spacecraft dedicated to studying carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas driving changes in Earth's climate, has arrived at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., to begin final launch preparations. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory arrived Tues., Nov. 11, at its launch site on California's central coast after completing a cross-country trip by truck from its manufacturer, Orbital Sciences Corp. in Dulles, Va. The spacecraft left Orbital on Nov. 8.

After final tests, the spacecraft will be integrated onto an Orbital Sciences Taurus rocket in preparation for its planned January 2009 launch. The observatory will help solve some of the lingering mysteries in our understanding of Earth's carbon cycle and its primary atmospheric component, carbon dioxide, a chemical compound that is produced both naturally and through human activities.

Each year, humans release more than 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels. As much as 5.5 billion tons of additional carbon dioxide are released each year by biomass burning, forest fires and land-use practices such as "slash-and-burn" agriculture. These activities have increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by almost 20 percent during the past 50 years. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide trap the sun's heat within Earth's atmosphere, warming it and keeping it at habitable temperatures. However, scientists have concluded that increases in carbon dioxide resulting from human activities have thrown Earth's natural carbon cycle out of balance, increasing global temperatures and changing the planet's climate.

While scientists have a good understanding of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from burning fossil fuels, their understanding of carbon dioxide from other human-produced and natural sources is relatively poor. They know from ground measurements that only 40 to 50 percent of the carbon humans emit remains in Earth's atmosphere; the other 50 to 60 percent, they believe, is absorbed by Earth's ocean and land plants.

Scientists do not know, however, precisely where the absorbed carbon dioxide from human emissions is stored, what natural processes are absorbing it, or whether those processes will continue to work to limit increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the future, as they do now. The observatory's space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide will have the precision, resolution and coverage needed to provide the first complete picture of both human and natural sources of carbon dioxide emissions. It will show the places where they are absorbed, known as "sinks," at regional scales everywhere on Earth. Its data will reduce uncertainties in forecasts of how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere and improve the accuracy of global climate change predictions.

The observatory's science instrument features three first-of-a-kind, high-resolution spectrometers that spread reflected sunlight into its various colors. By analyzing these spectra, scientists can detect what gases are in Earth's atmosphere and determine their amounts. The spectrometers are specifically tuned to measure the amount of reflected sunlight absorbed by carbon dioxide and molecular oxygen. These measurements will be analyzed to yield monthly estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide over 1,000-square-kilometer (386-square-mile) regions of Earth's surface to an accuracy of 0.3 to 0.5 percent. Scientists will analyze these data using global atmospheric chemical transport models, similar to those used to predict the weather, to locate carbon dioxide sources and sinks.

The observatory will launch into a 705-kilometer (438-mile) near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit inclined 98.2 degrees to Earth's equator, mapping the globe once every 16 days. The mission is designed to last two years. It will fly in formation with the five other NASA missions that are part of the "A-Train," or afternoon constellation, of Earth Observing System satellites that cross the equator each day shortly after noon. This coordinated flight formation will enable researchers to correlate the observatory's data with data from the other NASA spacecraft, including nearly simultaneous carbon dioxide measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Program mission managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Orbital Sciences provides mission operations under JPL's leadership. Hamilton Sundstrand in Pomona, Calif., designed and built the observatory's science instrument. NASA's Launch Services Program at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for launch management. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Small break and Jury Duty

2008-11-26T21:06:00.003-05:00

I wish all of you a very happy Thanksgiving. I will be off until Tuesday December 2nd. (Could be longer since I have been summoned for Jury duty Starting on Monday. It is a process I accept with great responsibility.

Have a happy and healthy holiday weekend and see you soon.

Phil

Busiest Travel Day !

2008-11-25T21:51:00.003-05:00

I have been getting plenty of calls and e-mails requesting travel info for many sites across the USA. Since airport information changes constantly, here is a great web site that will give you city by city up to the minute traffic delay data.

http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

Here at home you can always check our web site for the latest highway information or dial 511 once you are on the road, and remember whether flying or driving, please take care and come back safe and sound.

I would like to take just a second to tell each and everyone of you who read and participate on the Phil Factor or watch our newscasts, that I am thankful and appreciate your viewership, e-mails and comments. Without you and your support non of this would be possible.

Hope you have a happy and healthy Thanksgiving.

Phil Ferro

Thanksgiving Chill

2008-11-24T22:24:00.004-05:00

A cold front is expected to move in Tuesday Night and cool us down for Thanksgiving.

Notice the blue line moving east. This is the leading edge of the cold air mass being pushed south by a low pressure system sitting over the Great Lakes.

The models are forecasting the front to move here either Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Morning lows both Wednesday and Thursday should be in the mid to upper 50's.

Enjoy this cool weather because models are hinting and highs to be back in the low 80's by the weekend.

Weird Weather

2008-11-20T17:54:00.003-05:00

Its been wonderful here in South Florida over the last few days... cool mornings giving way to pleasant afternoon highs. We've seen very little sweat due to the lack of humidity and that should be the pattern through the weekend. This is our reward for enduring and living through hurricane season. This kind of weather reminds me of fall in the upper Midwest where I lived for many years. It got me thinking of friends that still live there and so I checked out their weather reports . I was surprised to find the following blurb on a Midwest local TV station and I thought you'd enjoy it !

Cheyenne resident Linda Reid tries to walk out the front door of her home Thursday, Nov. 6, 2008 in northern Cheyenne, Wy.

The high winds from Wednesday night and Thursday morning blocked the entrance with hundreds of tumbleweeds.

Reid said she walked out of her home at 8:30 a.m. to get the newspaper and was surprised by 5 foot plus high pile of tumbleweeds.

(AP Photo/Michael Smith, Wyoming Tribune Eagle)

May I suggest Tumbleweed Panels !!!

The Sun Shows Signs of Life

2008-11-19T17:51:00.004-05:00

All the weather on earth is due to the sun. We watch it closely to hopefully determine what we can expect as far as long range models are concerned. I found this article from NASA to be very interesting as it seems to indicate the sun is roaring back to life after a period of calm.

Courtesy NASA

After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. His statement is prompted by an October flurry of sunspots. "Last month we counted five sunspot groups," he says. That may not sound like much, but in a year with record-low numbers of sunspots and long stretches of utter spotlessness, five is significant. "This represents a real increase in solar activity."

Above: New-cycle sunspot group 1007 emerges on Halloween and marches across the face of the sun over a four-day period in early November 2008. Credit: the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).
Even more significant is the fact that four of the five sunspot groups belonged to Solar Cycle 24, the long-awaited next installment of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. "October was the first time we've seen sunspots from new Solar Cycle 24 outnumbering spots from old Solar Cycle 23. It's a good sign that the new cycle is taking off."

Old Solar Cycle 23 peaked in 2000 and has since decayed to low levels. Meanwhile, new Solar Cycle 24 has struggled to get started. 2008 is a year of overlap with both cycles weakly active at the same time. From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned.

At first glance, old- and new-cycle sunspots look the same, but they are not. To tell the difference, solar physicists check two things: a sunspot's heliographic latitude and its magnetic polarity. (1) New-cycle sunspots always appear at high latitude, while old-cycle spots cluster around the sun's equator. (2) The magnetic polarity of new-cycle spots is reversed compared to old-cycle spots. Four of October's five sunspot groups satisfied these two criteria for membership in Solar Cycle 24.
The biggest of the new-cycle spots emerged at the end of the month on Halloween. Numbered 1007, or "double-oh seven" for short, the sunspot had two dark cores each wider than Earth connected by active magnetic filaments thousands of kilometers long. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman took this picture from his backyard observatory in Buffalo, New York:

On Nov. 3rd and again on Nov. 4th, double-oh seven unleashed a series of B-class solar flares. Although B-flares are considered minor, the explosions made themselves felt on Earth. X-rays bathed the day side of our planet and sent waves of ionization rippling through the atmosphere over Europe. Hams monitoring VLF radio beacons noticed strange "fades" and "surges" caused by the sudden ionospheric disturbances.

Hathaway tamps down the excitement: "We're still years away from solar maximum and, in the meantime, the sun is going to have some more quiet stretches." Even with its flurry of sunspots, the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days.
But it's a start. Stay tuned for solar activity.

Enjoy the cold and stay safe

2008-11-18T17:04:00.003-05:00

It may not be as cold as it gets in the Northeast or Midwest, but as far as Florida is concerned, this will be a chilly night.

Just to review, here is what the Red Cross recommends in order to keep Old Man winter at bay.

Exposure to cold can cause serious injury such as hypothermia.
If you must go outside, wear several layers of lightweight clothing. This will keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Gloves (or mittens) and a hat will prevent loss of body heat.

Understand the hazards of wind chill, which combines the cooling effect of wind and cold temperatures on exposed skin. As the wind increases, heat is carried away from a person's body at an accelerated rated, driving down the body temperature.

Stay Warm Safely
During the winter months, many people turn to alternative heating methods such as , fireplaces and space heaters. With these alternative ways to heat your home, come a few potential fire hazards. The Red Cross recommends keeping all potential sources of fuel, such as paper, clothing, bedding and carpets or rugs, at least three feet away from heat sources.

As far as pets are concerned, bring them in the house to stay warm. If you can't, then make sure they have appropriate shelter away from direct wind.

Delicate potted plants should also be taken inside, or at least covered to retain some heat. Bigger potted plants should be watered well.

Stay safe and enjoy this cool break.

Still a Chill (Set to Bob Seger's-Still the Same)

2008-11-17T16:28:00.002-05:00

Ok, so I went back a bit for that one.

The bottom line is that we will feel the chill in the air at least through the end of the week and maybe more.

A cold front went over us on Sunday and is now falling apart over the Caribbean, but by Tuesday another front pushes across South Florida that will keep us cool through Friday. Take a look at the image above, the blue line moving through the Carolina's , Kentucky and Tennessee... that's the second front. It is being shoved along by the jet-stream.

Once the front clears us on Tuesday, highs will remain well below the average of 81 degrees. We are forecasting highs in the mid 70's while the lows should stay in the low 50s, maybe even upper 40's inland. The average low for this time of year is 67 degrees.

Enjoy this beautiful weather ! For the first time in along time our cool snap will last longer than just a day or two!

Cool, cold, chilly....

2008-11-17T10:00:00.002-05:00

Whatever you call it , it is here... finally some cooler weather. It was a warm start to the weekend but then a front moved through and by Sunday morning the temps began to fall. You can expect this kind of weather possibly through the end of the week and then another front should move over us for next weekend. ( nice weather to get you in the holiday spirit )

Record Highs? Is this November?

2008-11-14T20:42:00.004-05:00

We are sandwiched between high pressure to the east and 2 fronts to the north. By Saturday, one front fades away over north Florida while the other continues it's trek towards our area. But before it arrives, the winds will veer out of the south pushing plenty of heat and humidity in our direction. We could end up seeing record highs on Saturday.

City______________Forecast High___________________ Previous Record
Miami________________87___________________________87 - 1986
Ft. Lauderdale_ _ ___ ____87_____________________ _____ 89 - 1976
Miami Beach________ ___87______________________ ____ 86 - 1987
Key West___________ __85___________________________87 - 1951

By Saturday night, the clouds will build and we may see a shower or two as the second stronger system moves through the area. By Sunday morning a few mid level clouds may obscure the sun, the breeze will pick up and the temperatures will take a tumble. Then go get your jacket because by mid afternoon the highs will struggle to reach the 70's and by Monday morning your commute to work and school will be in the 50's.

Ahh.... a taste of winter!

Hot then ColdUPDATE

2008-11-13T16:15:00.008-05:00

Official Record warmth across South Florida on Thursday morning

Morning low at Miami International was 78.
The record for the warmest low was 76 back in 1993.

In Ft. Lauderdale International the low was 78.
The record warmest low was 76 back in 1997.

Key West registered a morning low of 78.
The record warmest low was 78 set in 1993.

The average low for this time of year is around 68 degrees.

On the image above you can see that two fronts are making their way through the USA. The first has already begun to stall over the southeast. We will not see any impact from this system. The second front pushing across the nation's mid section is set for a Saturday Night/Sunday morning arrival here in South Florida.

We'll remain warm with morning lows in the mid to upper 70's and the highs possibly zooming to the upper 80's. In fact, the record high is 87 degrees for Saturday and most models are projecting temps reaching that mark.

We are also looking at a reinforcing shot of cold air moving in for the middle of the week. If that happens Thursday could be the coldest day with lows in the 50's.

Warm, then Cool and Tip

2008-11-12T17:30:00.004-05:00

Good question: Answer below.

First: Two fronts are aiming for South Florida... one will die out before it gets here, the other will make it.

The surface map above shows a cold front over Louisiana, this one will stall over North Florida by Friday. We do not expect any changes for us. But, the second front now moving into the Great Northwest is being pushed along by the jet steam and should arrive here sometime Saturday night.

Until then, our highs will be above average...in the mid 80's. (Our average high is around 82) Our overnight lows will be in the upper 70's which is way above normal. (Average is 68 )

Now for the question:
Eric asks: Super Typhoon Tip was the largest and most intense system ever recorded in the Pacific ocean and I want to know why here in the Atlantic we have never seen a large Hurricane like Super Typhoon Tip? And is it possible it could happen one day in the Atlantic? Thanks in advance

Phil says: First a bit of background on Tip. (Thanks Wikipedia)
As a result of very favorable conditions for development, Typhoon Tip rapidly intensified in the open waters of the western Pacific Ocean. Late on October 10, 1979, the typhoon attained the equivalence of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and the next day it became a super typhoon. The central pressure dropped 92 mbar (hPa) from October 9 to 11, during which the circulation pattern of Typhoon Tip increased to a record diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi). The typhoon continued to intensify further, and early on October 12 Reconnaissance Aircraft recorded a world record-low pressure of 870 mbar (hPa) with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph) while located about 840 km (520 mi) west-northwest of Guam. At the time of its peak strength, its eye was 15 km (9.3 mi) wide. Not only was this system strong it was also big, take a look at the graph below comparing Tip to the smallest Tropical Cyclone by the name of Tracy. Tip was huge !

Super Typhoon Tip was the outcome of many factors coming together at the right place and right time. We have been lucky that the recipe has never cooked up a monster like that in the Atlantic basin. I never say never as far as our chances to see such an event. If water temperatures get warmer and good outflow permeates the system for a few days.... we may just one day see such a huge storm.

Thanks