The Phil Factor

Tough Front

2009-12-05T11:11:00.002-05:00

Friday night I forcasted a Saturday morning with the possibility of severe weather. Every reading, indication, and model run pointed to that. So I get up this morning with plenty of sunshine. Argghhh!

Checked the radar only to find the front moving as fast as a 92 year old grand mother. It is crawling in our direction. This means NO morning thunder but still a chance for some nasty weather until the front finally clears us.

When will that happen? Only mother nature knows!

Pain in the rear....

2009-12-04T14:50:00.004-05:00

This cold front has been trouble to forecast since the beginning. One day its by Central Florida, the next near Lake Okeechobee, then it stalls, now its back just north of the Lake.

We've seen averything from showers, to sun, to record heat ahead of it.

Most models agree that eventually it will move South and bring our temps back to normal which will seem cooler by this week's standards.

Friday Night: Tons of rain sitting West of the Keys and Naples. The way the wind is blowing, most of that nasty stuff should move over Naples, Ft. Myers the Lake and Palm Beach county. They could even see a tornado. We could see some wayward showers and even a thunderstorm or two.

Saturday: Here comes the kicker. The front is expected to finally start moving south which means a good chance of rain for us, some of it could be heavy. Like that it is moving, but does it have to do so on SATURDAY!

Sunday: Models now hint at some cloudiness but drier and just a tad cooler.

Lets see if any of it pans out.

Weekend is here

2009-12-03T22:21:00.002-05:00

Looking at some overnight showers/t-storms moving up the Keys and into Miami Dade and Broward that could linger through morning.

Then we watch a week front stalling over us. Will it bring us more clouds? Rain? Wind? Some models say yes and others no. I expect some cloudiness with isolated showers and maybe even a storm through Saturday.

By Sunday the front should dissipate and we just may get a tiny drop in temps.

(( By the way we should have our new web page up and running soon... thank you for your patience))

Thundiferous Thursday?

2009-12-02T23:13:00.002-05:00

The tail end of a cold front should swing across South Florida on Thursday. It will slow down and stay awhile. This will mean a decent chance for rain and even a few strong storms.

By Saturday afternoon the front could clear the area and by Sunday our temps could be a tad, a hair, a smidget, cooler.

Undecided Models

2009-12-01T17:44:00.002-05:00

As of Monday, most models were showing a cold front pushing some rain on Wednesday and then cooling us off for Friday with lows in the 50's.

Eeesscreechhh!! Halt! Stop! Brick Wall ! On Tuesday, the same models flipped flopped and now suggest the front will stall out somewhere over us during the next few days. Now we are looking at some showers or a possible t-storm for Thursday, Friday and maybe even on Saturday with minimal cooling.

Ahead of it however, we could see some very warm temps. Could be flirting with records on Wednesday.

Models! Sheesh!

Moon Halo

2009-11-30T21:22:00.005-05:00

Monday night I received many calls regarding the ring around the moon. This is a Moon Halo. Basically the moonlight is reflected by tiny ice crystals in the upper atmosphere creating the ring around the moon. Doesn't happen too often but when it does its a beautiful sight.

Also:
Cold front moving by Pensacola. It should slowly track east over the next day or so keeping us in the warm side. Average high this time of year in 79, we will be above that through Thursday.

Expecting more rain to move in late Wednesday night and in through Thursday ahead of the front. Once it clears South Florida our temps should drop into the 50's by Friday morning.

Back to work and a celebration

2009-11-30T09:52:00.002-05:00

Had a great Thanksgiving, hope you had one too. As I gear up again for this week's weather, seems like it will be on the warm side at least through the middle of the week. Then we can expect some changes in the form of heavy rain pockets and even some t-storms. This will be due to a slow moving cold front. If it doesn't slow down or speed up, we should then feel the cold weather for Friday and Saturday.

By the way pop open the champagne , Monday is the last day of hurricane season!

Important Satellite RIP

2009-11-24T22:24:00.001-05:00

This was posted by the Palm Beach post on Monday. Not a good thing for huricane tracking.

QuikSCAT satellite goes downby Eliot Kleinberg, Monday, November 23rd, 2009, 5:44 pm
QuikSCAT, the NASA satellite whose health helped lead to the ouster of the National Hurricane Center’s director, has stopped working. The satellite’s antenna quit rotating at 2 this morning, according to U.S. Rep. Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton.

In September, Klein introduced the Satellite Modernization Act, which will pay for craft that will cover 90 percent of the ocean surface every 12 hours.
“Today’s news of its failure simply strengthens our commitment to ensure that a next-generation satellite is constructed and launched as quickly as possible,” Klein said in a statement.
Currently, QuikSCAT makes the scan every 24 hours, but with the antenna down, it will lose its real-time reporting capability, and will collect only long-term data, project manager Rob Gaston said from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

“That capability, I don’t think we’re going to get back,” Gaston, who’s been with QuikSCAT since its launch in 1999 and manager since 2004, said this afternoon.
He said the JPL will work on restarting the antenna over the next week, “but the chances of that happening are slim.”

QuikSCAT was well past its original 5-year useful life and had been showing mechanical wear, and agencies had warned for the last two years that it could fail at any time.
A NOAA memo from September had insisted that losing QuickSCAT would have little or no impact on the quality of forecasts for storms near the U.S. or the Caribbean, because of the other satellites, as well as radar, airplanes and buoys, both American and from other nations.

But the NOAA memo did say QuikSCAT was valuable in studying storms in the open ocean.
It was a spat over the satellite that helped lead to the ouster of then-director Bill Proenza in July 2007, just six months into his tenure.
Proenza had claimed the loss of QuikSCAT would reduce by 16 percent the accuracy of the hurricane center’s three-day forecast.

Wife a little happier

2009-11-24T11:30:00.002-05:00

Model runs are being a bit more optimistic now for Thanksgiving. They are suggesting rain will move in on Wednesday ahead of a front and then drying out for Thursday. If this happens we should only see a 20% chance of showers for turkey day. This means my wife can have her big meal outdoors! If she's happy-I'm happy.

But there is always a fly in the ointment. Like being sent to the grocery store by your spouse with a list and finding everything on it but one. Its the most important and you have to run all over town to find it. Then we you get home you are informed that she no longer needs that item. No holiday pressure here! But I digress.

If the rain slows down in getting here then it may linger through Thanksgiving! For my wife's sake and my sanity I hope that doesn't happen.

Rainy cooler Turkey Day?

2009-11-23T08:42:00.004-05:00

Weather can change at the drop of a hat.

My house is full of family that came in on Saturday from Minneapolis. I was hoping for a little nicer weather, but it looks like its not meant to be.

As of Tuesday morning , most models now show the sub-tropical jet stream developing over the Gulf and pushing not just a front our way, but also plenty of moisture ahead of it. This means that as early as Tuesday night we could see a better chance for rain lingering through Thanksgiving.

My wife is not going to be happy since she planned our holiday dinner outside (on my recommendation and forecast).

Mother Nature sometimes can act like that old great aunt with the mole on her face who always wanted you to kiss her on the cheek when you were a kid. Arrgghh!

Regardless of rain, we will be together with both sides of my family: Grandmas and grandpas, aunts and uncles, cousins and a bunch of little ones . Mother nature can't change that!. It will be a very nice week regardless. So instead of sitting outside, we will dine indoors. We will all be a little more cramped and a little closer. I of course will be sitting next to my dear old great aunt with the mole on her face.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

For all practical purposes...

2009-11-19T17:56:00.003-05:00

.... Hurricane season is done. We can't officially celebrate until the end of November when the season comes to a close.... but chances are very slim that we could see a system develop any time soon. (Although they can happen at any time of year as long as the water temp is above 80 degrees.)

As we speak surface water temps are around 78 degrees and upper level winds remain hostile for hurricane formation. So why the quiet season? Not that anyone is complaining!

Back in early June at the start of the season, Dr. William Gray and the Colorado State University team had forecast. 11 Named Systems out which 5 could become hurricanes, and out of that number, 2 could reach Category 3 strength or above.

Well here is what hurricane guru Dr. William Gray has to say:

Activity in 2009 was reduced considerably due largely to the moderate El Niño event that developed. This event generated significantly stronger-than-average vertical wind shear, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, only nine named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes formed in 2009. This activity was 61%, 38%, and 51% of the 1995-2008 average activity for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively.

Lots of numbers, but the bottom line as we approach Thanksgiving, is that we are all grateful nothing came close to us. Hopefully next year we will come in under the spread once again.

Hot under the collar

2009-11-17T12:00:00.003-05:00

So today, I got a curve ball. Less than one year into a brand new, high efficiency, extra quiet air conditionig unit, it begins to make strange noises and leaking water into my son's bedroom. Plenty of water on the floor and now drowning in a big bill.

It's a new unit, I think. It's under warranty I think.

Repairman comes out. Apparently the drip line was clogged and backed up the water into the inside unit. Also the drain pan had a crack in it (ON A BRAND NEW UNIT) but fortunately that was under warranty.

Now comes the bad news on the strange noise. It's not the unit, it's a bad copper line from the unit to the outside compressor. It's leaking freon like crazy and forcing the air conditioner to work twice as hard. Not under warranty. Just under $2000.oo dollars to fix. OOOuuucchhhh!

So here comes the rush of irrational feelings. As I stare the tech down with a tight lipped grin, I'm thinking, "What? Are you nuts??! You know how long it takes me to earn 2000 dollars? That's a mortgage payment! That's a Disney Vacation on Disney property! That's almost 6 months of FPL payments! (That's another story) Its food for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years! Santa's Gifts!

But, Phil relax, said another voice in my head as my brow softened a little. You ARE employed, you HAVE a roof over your head, your children live in a nice home, what more do you want? It's only money.

I know its only money, as my glare on the tech got more focused, but I don't want to stimulate the economy single handedly. That amount is more than one year's worth of gas for my very small economy car. That's why I got it, to save money. I brown bag my lunch to work in my kids old school lunch box to save money. (I look like a dork). I mow my own lawn, to save money . I could go on and on.

Meanwhile the tech, who has been very professional and courteous... is waiting for my decision.

The moment of truth was upon me, I had to give him an answer. The response began deep in my gut, slowly rising with a taste of bile. Drops of sweat began to flow from my forehead. My breathing got more labored as the words I was about to speak neared my lips. I looked down for a brief moment as if waiting for divine inspiration, then slowly raised my head looking like Linda Blair possessed in the Exorcist and gave him the answer. "Sure when can you start?"

So here I am stewing under the circumstances.

I know it' s a problem that needs fixing, I can't be without air conditioning in Florida even in Fall. I'm blessed to have a job for which I can pay for this big expense. But dang!!! Hot under the collar.

Little Change

2009-11-16T16:12:00.002-05:00

We should remain partly cloudy, a tad warmer and maybe a shower or two through the end of the week.

Many folks are asking me as to what to expect as we go on to Thanksgiving week. We don't see any big storm systems moving our way (of course Mother Nature always has the last word) and washing out our holiday.

Typically we can expect highs in the upper 70's to low 80's, with lows in the mid 60's.

If anything changes in the long range outlook, check here for the latest.

Moon H2o

2009-11-13T17:13:00.002-05:00

Its going to be a beautiful weekend. Enjoy and look at the beautiful night sky as the moonless nights will make those stars shine brightly.

Speaking of the moon, it appears there is water in them there hills after all. (If you are like me, were around during the moonshots and wondered when we'll be back, well...)

Read what NASA has to say:

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- It turns out there's plenty of water on the moon -- at least near the lunar south pole, scientists said Friday.

"Indeed, yes, we found water. And we didn't find just a little bit, we found a significant amount," said Anthony Colaprete, a principal project investigator at NASA's Ames Research Center.
The discovery came from an analysis of data from a spacecraft NASA intentionally crashed into the moon last month.

Colaprete estimated the impact kicked up at least 25 gallons of water. Significant water would make it easier to set up a base camp for astronauts. Previous spacecraft have detected the presence of hydrogen in lunar craters near the poles.

In September, scientists reported finding tiny amounts of water mixed into the lunar soil all over the lunar surface. The mission actually involved two moon shots. First, an empty rocket hull slammed into Cabeus crater. The shepherding spacecraft recorded the drama live before it also crashed into the same spot minutes later.

>>>> Hopefully this will lead to a return to the moon, a base, and voyages to other planets <<<< And the economy will turn around, house values will go up, health care will be free, and I'll develop 6 pack abs without crunches !

Work in the Yard Weather

2009-11-12T16:49:00.003-05:00

I have to admit it, but I love this time of year to work on my yard and lawn. I get enthused, trimming, planting and wood chipping. Doing this type of work with my hands clears my mind and helps me recharge my batteries.

My wife and I hit the turf like two kids in a candy shoppe. Speaking of kids, they too get involved picking out flowers and helping to clean up their play area. Its like "spring spruce" up in reverse. We tend to do it in Fall.

If you like the "green-thing" like I do, enjoy the next couple of days. It will be nice and sunny with cool morning lows and pleasant highs.

Wish we could get a week of this stuff!!

We can't complain

2009-11-11T19:48:00.003-05:00

We are used to dealing with power outages after storms, sometimes lasting for weeks. But outside of impacting , oh maybe a few million people, they aren't that big. At least not compared to what a storm did in Brazil where millions and millions were left without electricity.

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) -- Heavy rain and strong wind caused blackouts that left nearly a third of Brazilians -- 60 million people -- in the dark, officials said Wednesday as they scrambled to restore confidence in the country's infrastructure before soccer's 2014 World Cup and Rio's 2016 Olympics.

The weather made transformers on a vital high-voltage transmission line short-circuit, Brazil's energy minister said. Two other transmission lines also went down as part of an automatic safety mechanism.

"The problem was exclusively with the transmission lines," Energy Minister Edison Lobao said.
The blackout cut electricity to 18 of 27 Brazilian states and left them without power for up to four hours Tuesday night. About 7 million people also lost water service. All of Paraguay briefly lost power.

The massive Itaipu dam on the border with Paraguay -- the world's second-largest hydroelectric power producer -- was completely shut down for the first time in its 25-year history.
In Brazil's largest cities of Rio and Sao Paulo, people were trapped in elevators, stranded on commuter trains or stuck in sweltering apartments during unusually hot spring temperatures that have hit the 90s.

"I wonder how this could have happened and am worried about what it does to Brazil's image, especially with the World Cup and Olympics coming up," said Wesley Aragao, a 24-year-old sailor who waited out the blackout at his parents' house in northern Rio. "Nobody likes to be left in the dark."

The Brazilian Olympic Committee would not comment on Tuesday's blackout, but among the guarantees made to the International Olympic Committee is that Rio will be isolated from the nation's power system exactly to avoid problems like this. The city will have its own direct energy feed during the games.

Analysts said the blackout shows Brazil's lack of investment in the power system at a time when Latin America's largest economy is booming. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defended his government from criticism that it has not done enough to improve the power grid since he took office in 2003, two years after Brazil suffered shortages and rationing under his predecessor.
"In seven years, we created 30 percent of all the transmission lines built in the last 130 years," Silva said Wednesday. "There was no shortage of power generation, and the problem was not a lack of transmission lines."

Lobao said Silva's government has invested about $13 billion in the transmission lines, and another $4.7 billion in transformers since 2003.
The energy minister also defended the strength of the Brazilian system -- pointing out that it took a day to fully restore power after a blackout hit the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada in 2003, leaving 50 million people in the dark. He mentioned lengthier blackouts other nations, including Italy and Japan.

It was at least the fourth time since 1985 that Brazil has suffered a massive power outage blamed on transmission line failures from Itaipu, the world's second-largest dam behind China's Three Gorges.

The worst of the Brazilian blackouts occurred in 1999 after lightning struck a power substation in Sao Paulo state, plunging 97 million Brazilians into darkness for up to five hours.
After severe energy shortages and rationing in 2001, Brazil diversified its energy supply. It has seen blackouts since, but none like Tuesday's failure, in which the power outage was more geographically widespread. Analysts say the scope of the blackout was so large because the nation's power grid has become more interconnected, meaning a glitch in one part can affect a wider area.

"There is an absolute failure of infrastructure in terms of energy," said Patrizia Tomasi, an engineer with the Brazilian energy consultancy firm Planck E. "What we are seeing now is only the beginning. There is a need to invest more, to improve how energy is managed by those in the government. We have Itaipu, which is huge, which is great, but there are no lines to transmit all that energy."

Jorge Miguel Samek, the head of Itaipu Binacional, said there was no lack of energy. "The problem was with lightning or a storm that took down some towers," he said.
Energy from Itaipu travels along five high-capacity transmission lines strung up on 2,000 towers each to two substations about 560 miles (900 kilometers) east in Sao Paulo state, according to Itaipu's Web site. From those substations, the energy enters Brazil's national grid and heads to four main regions, the most populous areas of Brazil.

If a transmission line heading to the substations is damaged, a safety mechanism will begin to shut down the power generators at Itaipu, which is what happened Tuesday night, Samek said.
All of which was little solace for those who encountered sudden darkness.
Chaotic traffic in Rio turned even worse, hospitals rushed to find emergency generators to keep intensive care units and emergency rooms operating, and people stayed indoors because of worries about a potential outbreak of violence following intense drug gang wars.

In the city of Bauru in Sao Paulo state, the blackout caused a panic in a neonatal care unit that was without generators.

Five of six babies were quickly transferred to another hospital before a visiting television crew lent the hospital the generator it was carrying. Light from the camera was the only available source in the unit for hours.

The blackouts came when most people were already safely at home. There were no increases in crime in Rio, and Sao Paulo saw a drop in the number of incidents, police said.

Midweek Rain

2009-11-10T17:14:00.002-05:00

Ida is done, and now our attention turns to a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

There is a pre-frontal trough (area of clouds and rain ahead of the front) that should swing through Tuesday nigh and Wednesday. It will provide us with a good chance for rain.

Thursday promises to be nice, but the best news if you like cooler weather, is that most models hint at the fact that Thursday night and Friday morning could get cool.

It appears we could be waking up to lows around 59 degrees on Friday morning. A little warmer for the weekend but looking dry, sunny and seasonal.

Ida's Past

2009-11-09T17:13:00.002-05:00

As Ida prepares to make landfall near Pensacola, our friends to the north will be dealing with mostly heavy rains.

Nothing compared to our friends to the south who are dealing with mud and land slides. This is what A.P. is saying.

VERAPAZ, El Salvador (AP) -- Tears streamed down Elsy Portillo's badly bruised face as she walked Monday behind coffins carrying her mother and only child in this town buried by a massive landslide, one of a series that killed at least 134 people nationwide.
Portillo's body was flung repeatedly against the walls as she fought to keep her 7-year-old son from being swept away in the powerful river of mud, boulders and floodwaters overtaking their home in the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

The 40-year-old woman survived but said she lost everything she had lived for.
"My little angel was taken away," she said, sobbing, her right eye swollen shut. "My little angel was taken away."
Days of heavy rains unleashed massive flooding and mudslides across the mountainous Central American country Sunday.

Hurricane Ida's presence in the western Caribbean late last week may have played a role in drawing the rain-packed, Pacific low-pressure system toward El Salvador on the other side of Central America, said Dave Roberts, a Navy hurricane specialist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Ida weakened Monday as it lost strength over the water on its way to a landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

No place was harder hit than Verapaz, a poor, farming town of 7,000 people on the slopes of the Chichontepec volcano, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) east of the capital, San Salvador.
Boulders, many weighing more than a ton, littered the cobblestone streets Monday. Cars and homes protruded from the mounds of mud. Bloated dead cows lay on rooftops after being hurled into the air -- attesting to the force of the deluge that turned the normally picturesque coffee-growing town into a disaster zone.

Soldiers and townspeople continued digging through rock and debris to search for the 47 people who remained missing Monday. Collapsed walls and downed power lines prevented heavy machinery from entering. Many used their bare hands.
Hopes of finding survivors dimmed with each passing hour.
President Mauricio Funes flew in to survey the damage. He urged federal lawmakers to approve millions of dollars in loans from the Inter-American Development Bank, saying some of the funds would be redirected for reconstruction.

"The images speak clearly," said Funes, after stopping to talk to men shoveling more than a meter (3 feet) of mud from their homes.
Portillo was among 200 townspeople who spent the night at a church in the nearby town of San Isidro after losing their homes. Eight of the bodies, including those of her son and mother, were sent in coffins to the church as well.

While children slept on the floor, many of the adults passed the night praying and weeping over coffins lined up near the altar. Some would open them to see who was inside. One woman fainted. Small candles were lit and stuck to the coffins.
Portillo said the heavy rain woke her up Sunday. When she saw the deluge coming toward her home, she woke up her son and tried to get them up to the roof.
But when she opened her door, they were swept away by the fast-moving current that filled her home. She lost her grip on her son when her body was slammed against one of the cement walls.
"The current threw me about but I never lost consciousness," she said. "I swallowed so much mud."

Portillo said after everything calmed down, she found the bodies of her mother and son a few blocks away. Mayor Jose Antonio Hernandez said rescuers found six more bodies in Verapaz, raising the town's death toll to 16. Nationwide, the death toll stood at 134, Funes told reporters.
Portillo's son, Francisco Alejandro Portillo, was the youngest victim found so far. Two other girls, ages 13 and 15, and a woman who was eight months pregnant were also killed.
Portillo's sister Sonia Margarita made it to her roof with her four children. They sat huddled together in the rain and felt helpless as friends and neighbors were carried away, screaming in the darkness.
"My children are traumatized," she said. "If we had moved off of that roof, we would have died."

Watching Ida

2009-11-06T15:57:00.003-05:00

Ida is back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and promising to get stronger.

Most models agree it will do so, what remains uncertain is just how strong it will be once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

Once in the Gulf, it will encounter strong upper level winds... will they be string enough to knock Ida down or will they steer the system our way?

Will the warm waters of the Gulf provide enough energy for it to grow even stronger?

Its a complicated forecast for Ida, but here are four scenarios to watch out for.

Once in the Gulf, it hits the strong upper level winds and falls apart
Once in the Gulf, it could get stronger due to some very warm waters
Once in the Gulf, it gets absorbed by a cold front being pushed along by those strong upper level winds.
Once in the Gulf, it could become extra tropical. This is kind of a hybrid system-half tropical storm, half regular low. In this case most of the winds and rain could get pushed away from the centered and sent in our direction.

Too much to follow and watch. The best thing to do is wait and see what direction Ida takes over the next 24 hours.

What to expect from Ida

2009-11-05T18:19:00.003-05:00

Quick overview of Ida.

It made landfall over Nicaragua on Thursday morning and has been weakening ever since. Here is what we are looking at.

Some models hint at the possibility it could fall apart over the next few days.
Others show it moving back into the Caribbean, going back up to storm status and heading north . By Monday it may be in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.
Some have a front moving out of Texas and absorbing the system. In this scenario, rain from the remnants of Ida could arrive here sometime next week.
A few have the same front, pushing Ida our way. In this scenario we could be dealing with a storm somewhere along the west coast of Florida by next Week.

NHC Shows the system possibly making landfall over the Panhandle. For the moment we need to wait and see.

Ida

2009-11-04T16:31:00.003-05:00

Thursday morning may see Ida turn into a hurricane for a brief moment before making landfall. On Wednesday, the disturbance near Nicaragua grew in strength and NHC named it Tropical Storm Ida. It went from 35 to 60 to 65 mph in a matter of about 4 hours.

As of this writing, the system is still over a very warm energy source, with good inflow at the surface and just as good outflow in the upper levels. Because of this , there is a chance Ida could become a hurricane before going ashore over Nicaragua.

It has a few things going for it:.

Center is over warm waters
Very little shear over it at the moment

Surrounding Ida, is high pressure to the east and a trough to the north. Models are a bit unsure as to what will happen in the long run.

Working against it:

For the moment its moving very slow to the northwest.
It is getting close to land
If it makes landfall it may rain itself out

In the long run, some models push the system completely over land and falling apart.
Others track it over land, but surviving and emerging near the Yucatan and regrouping into a Storm.
And some, keep it over water with the possibility of getting stronger. For the time being we just need to watch it.

Regardless it will bring plenty of rain to Nicaragua with the danger of mud and landslides. Some models hint at rain totals of over 20 inches in some areas. We can only hope for the best for our Central American friends.

Low near Costa Rica

2009-11-03T16:59:00.004-05:00

Over the last 24 hours we have been following a broad area of low pressure near Costa Rica in Central America. It is looking better on satellite imagery as it meanders over the warm waters of the western Caribbean. It is almost stationary and because of this it has plenty of fuel to grow....NHC is giving it a 30-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Early model runs suggest it could go just about anywhere, with some taking it due north, others, west and some just keep it over the area.

NHC has a recon plane on stand by for Wednesday just in case they need to check it out and get more info. For the time being, all we can do is watch since it is sitting over a climatological favored area for intensification.

Hot under the collar

2009-11-02T16:58:00.004-05:00

No this post is not about weather, instead its a commentary on the barometer of parental behaviour. Let me just say that by no means am I a perfect parent nor do I claim to be one. The pressures on parents today are enormous, with education cutbacks, violence, and so much sexual-commercial stuff on TV , it's enough to drive you crazy. But yet we manage to do the best we can.

Still sometimes we can get out of hand. Case and point, my 10 year old is in a tennis league playing every Saturday against teams from other South Florida locales. Most parents sit back and enjoy their kids playing hard, having fun, winning and of course losing.

I think this competition is an integral part of life... as they grow up they will encounter other kinds of victories, and many loses , from emotional to job related. They must learn how to deal with them, overcome them and move on. As parents I believe it is our obligation to guide them through it, but they themselves must handle it.

((Ok go off track a bit)). The team my kid is in has won one match and lost two. The two defeats were at the hands of older teams, but no excuse here, they both played hard. It was the parent coach from the most recent team that kinda startled me.

Key points:

They were 20 min. late (No apologies offered when they arrived)
They were all boys 10-12 years old. (Our team has 2 girls 8 and 10)
The coach complained he had driven from Key Biscayne to play girls???
His players were unruly.
The coach was constantly yelling
The vocabulary of some of his players, left allot to be desired.

Our team lost to the better players, but just like the coach, they did not shake hands and gloated off the courts. Even though our kids lost the game, I believe they won in other ways.

They did not give up at the hands of an overwhelming opponent.
Handled their defeat with grace.
And improved their play as they battled their better opponent.

I believe this parent-coach made for a very uncomfortable environment for all, not just the kids. Other parents wanted to confront him, but what good would that do? Instead of being reasonable adults that kids can look up to we would just would have acted like immature kids.

What do you think??? Am I being too picky?

Dry Season and El Nino

2009-10-29T21:12:00.002-04:00

On Thursday, NOAA released its outlook for the dry season. It appears EL NINO will be a big player in determining how much moisture we will see and how cool the temperatures will be.

Here is the complete release for your viewing pleasure:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL1000 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009...

EL NINO COULD SET THE STAGE FOR STORMIER WEATHER THIS COMING WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING SEASON OF 2009-2010 IS FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

EL NINO, SPANISH FOR "THE CHILD", IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARMING OF WATERS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WATERS WHICH TYPICALLY PEAKS AROUND CHRISTMAS. THIS WARMING OF THE PACIFIC TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AFFECTS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, PARTICULARLY FLORIDA.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF EL NINO IN FLORIDA IS TYPICALLY A WETTER AND STORMIER WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES.

THE PRESENT EL NINO DEVELOPED IN THE EARLY SUMMER AND IS PRESENTLY IN THE WEAK PHASE. LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM NOAA'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THAT THIS EL NINO WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE STRENGTH DURING THE 2009-2010 WINTER SEASON.

IF THE CURRENT EL NINO DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED, SOUTH FLORIDA CAN EXPECT HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING TORNADOES.

EVEN IF EL NINO REMAINS WEAKER THAN FORECAST, THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE HIGHER THAN IN YEARS WITH NO EL NINO. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IN SOUTH FLORIDA OCCURRED ON MARCH 27, 2003 DURING A MODERATE EL NINO EPISODE. A TOTAL OF 8 TORNADOES WERE SIGHTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ONE PERSON WAS KILLED IN THE LIBERTY CITY/BROWNSVILLE SECTION OF MIAMI AS AN EF2 TORNADO WITH WINDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH RIPPED THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

THE LAST EL NINO EPISODE OF 2006-2007, ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDED A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH RESULTED IN THE DEATHS OF 21 PEOPLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2007.

THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO A STRONGER JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH TENDS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA DURING EL NINO SEASONS. AS A RESULT, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TEND TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH, OFTEN TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THIS SOUTHERN STORM TRACK CREATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM ALSO ENHANCES THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING, DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE CARRIED EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY THE JET STREAM.

THE RAINFALL TYPICALLY OCCURS AS COLD FRONTS MOVE DOWN THE STATE AND AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION IS NORMALLY NOT UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED DURING AN EL NINO WINTER AND SPRING, WHICH CAN RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA DRY SEASON.

THE AVERAGE DRY SEASON RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA RANGES FROM 12 TO 15 INCHES OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS TO 15 TO 21 INCHES OVER EASTERN METRO SECTIONS. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER.

THE TREND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IS TYPICALLY MOST NOTICEABLE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THAN WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGER AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE JET STREAM TENDS TO LIMIT OR PREVENT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASSES FROM THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA, THEREBY REDUCING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENTS.

HOWEVER, THIS TREND IS MOSTLY OBSERVED WITH STRONGER EL NINO EVENTS, AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN PREVIOUS WEAK AND MODERATE EL NINO SEASONS. DURING THE MODERATE EL NINO OF 2002-2003, A SERIES OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS AFFECTED SOUTH FLORIDA IN JANUARY 2003, RESULTING IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AN ESTIMATED 2 MILLION DOLLARS IN CROP DAMAGE TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

THE AVERAGE WINTER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA RANGE FROM 64 TO 66 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS TO 67 TO 69 DEGREES OVER EASTERN METRO AREAS.SOUTH FLORIDIANS ARE URGED TO STAY INFORMED OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS THIS UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE, THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO HAVE A PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE.

A chance, maybe, hopefully

2009-10-28T16:52:00.002-04:00

As you know, a high pressure dome has been sitting across the western Atlantic acting as a road block preventing fronts from crossing our area. Well now some long range models suggest the jet stream will push it back just a little by early next week allowing a front over the 4 corners region to possibily move in here by Monday. If this happens, our temps will drop to... are you ready for this.... all the way down to >>>>> average - highs in the low to mid 80's<<<<<.

OK not the cool down we were hoping for but it will feel very pleasant with less humidity . That's about the best we can do right now until the overall upper air pattern changes.