Thursday, November 19, 2009

For all practical purposes...

.... Hurricane season is done. We can't officially celebrate until the end of November when the season comes to a close.... but chances are very slim that we could see a system develop any time soon. (Although they can happen at any time of year as long as the water temp is above 80 degrees.)


As we speak surface water temps are around 78 degrees and upper level winds remain hostile for hurricane formation. So why the quiet season? Not that anyone is complaining!


Back in early June at the start of the season, Dr. William Gray and the Colorado State University team had forecast. 11 Named Systems out which 5 could become hurricanes, and out of that number, 2 could reach Category 3 strength or above.


Well here is what hurricane guru Dr. William Gray has to say:

Activity in 2009 was reduced considerably due largely to the moderate El NiƱo event that developed. This event generated significantly stronger-than-average vertical wind shear, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, only nine named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes formed in 2009. This activity was 61%, 38%, and 51% of the 1995-2008 average activity for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively.

Lots of numbers, but the bottom line as we approach Thanksgiving, is that we are all grateful nothing came close to us. Hopefully next year we will come in under the spread once again.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Hot under the collar

So today, I got a curve ball. Less than one year into a brand new, high efficiency, extra quiet air conditionig unit, it begins to make strange noises and leaking water into my son's bedroom. Plenty of water on the floor and now drowning in a big bill.

It's a new unit, I think. It's under warranty I think.

Repairman comes out. Apparently the drip line was clogged and backed up the water into the inside unit. Also the drain pan had a crack in it (ON A BRAND NEW UNIT) but fortunately that was under warranty.

Now comes the bad news on the strange noise. It's not the unit, it's a bad copper line from the unit to the outside compressor. It's leaking freon like crazy and forcing the air conditioner to work twice as hard. Not under warranty. Just under $2000.oo dollars to fix. OOOuuucchhhh!

So here comes the rush of irrational feelings. As I stare the tech down with a tight lipped grin, I'm thinking, "What? Are you nuts??! You know how long it takes me to earn 2000 dollars? That's a mortgage payment! That's a Disney Vacation on Disney property! That's almost 6 months of FPL payments! (That's another story) Its food for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years! Santa's Gifts!

But, Phil relax, said another voice in my head as my brow softened a little. You ARE employed, you HAVE a roof over your head, your children live in a nice home, what more do you want? It's only money.

I know its only money, as my glare on the tech got more focused, but I don't want to stimulate the economy single handedly. That amount is more than one year's worth of gas for my very small economy car. That's why I got it, to save money. I brown bag my lunch to work in my kids old school lunch box to save money. (I look like a dork). I mow my own lawn, to save money . I could go on and on.

Meanwhile the tech, who has been very professional and courteous... is waiting for my decision.

The moment of truth was upon me, I had to give him an answer. The response began deep in my gut, slowly rising with a taste of bile. Drops of sweat began to flow from my forehead. My breathing got more labored as the words I was about to speak neared my lips. I looked down for a brief moment as if waiting for divine inspiration, then slowly raised my head looking like Linda Blair possessed in the Exorcist and gave him the answer. "Sure when can you start?"

So here I am stewing under the circumstances.

I know it' s a problem that needs fixing, I can't be without air conditioning in Florida even in Fall. I'm blessed to have a job for which I can pay for this big expense. But dang!!! Hot under the collar.


Monday, November 16, 2009

Little Change

We should remain partly cloudy, a tad warmer and maybe a shower or two through the end of the week.

Many folks are asking me as to what to expect as we go on to Thanksgiving week. We don't see any big storm systems moving our way (of course Mother Nature always has the last word) and washing out our holiday.

Typically we can expect highs in the upper 70's to low 80's, with lows in the mid 60's.

If anything changes in the long range outlook, check here for the latest.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Moon H2o

Its going to be a beautiful weekend. Enjoy and look at the beautiful night sky as the moonless nights will make those stars shine brightly.

Speaking of the moon, it appears there is water in them there hills after all. (If you are like me, were around during the moonshots and wondered when we'll be back, well...)

Read what NASA has to say:

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- It turns out there's plenty of water on the moon -- at least near the lunar south pole, scientists said Friday.

"Indeed, yes, we found water. And we didn't find just a little bit, we found a significant amount," said Anthony Colaprete, a principal project investigator at NASA's Ames Research Center.
The discovery came from an analysis of data from a spacecraft NASA intentionally crashed into the moon last month.


Colaprete estimated the impact kicked up at least 25 gallons of water. Significant water would make it easier to set up a base camp for astronauts. Previous spacecraft have detected the presence of hydrogen in lunar craters near the poles.

In September, scientists reported finding tiny amounts of water mixed into the lunar soil all over the lunar surface. The mission actually involved two moon shots. First, an empty rocket hull slammed into Cabeus crater. The shepherding spacecraft recorded the drama live before it also crashed into the same spot minutes later.

>>>> Hopefully this will lead to a return to the moon, a base, and voyages to other planets <<<< And the economy will turn around, house values will go up, health care will be free, and I'll develop 6 pack abs without crunches !

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Work in the Yard Weather

I have to admit it, but I love this time of year to work on my yard and lawn. I get enthused, trimming, planting and wood chipping. Doing this type of work with my hands clears my mind and helps me recharge my batteries.

My wife and I hit the turf like two kids in a candy shoppe. Speaking of kids, they too get involved picking out flowers and helping to clean up their play area. Its like "spring spruce" up in reverse. We tend to do it in Fall.

If you like the "green-thing" like I do, enjoy the next couple of days. It will be nice and sunny with cool morning lows and pleasant highs.

Wish we could get a week of this stuff!!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

We can't complain

We are used to dealing with power outages after storms, sometimes lasting for weeks. But outside of impacting , oh maybe a few million people, they aren't that big. At least not compared to what a storm did in Brazil where millions and millions were left without electricity.

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) -- Heavy rain and strong wind caused blackouts that left nearly a third of Brazilians -- 60 million people -- in the dark, officials said Wednesday as they scrambled to restore confidence in the country's infrastructure before soccer's 2014 World Cup and Rio's 2016 Olympics.

The weather made transformers on a vital high-voltage transmission line short-circuit, Brazil's energy minister said. Two other transmission lines also went down as part of an automatic safety mechanism.

"The problem was exclusively with the transmission lines," Energy Minister Edison Lobao said.
The blackout cut electricity to 18 of 27 Brazilian states and left them without power for up to four hours Tuesday night. About 7 million people also lost water service. All of Paraguay briefly lost power.

The massive Itaipu dam on the border with Paraguay -- the world's second-largest hydroelectric power producer -- was completely shut down for the first time in its 25-year history.
In Brazil's largest cities of Rio and Sao Paulo, people were trapped in elevators, stranded on commuter trains or stuck in sweltering apartments during unusually hot spring temperatures that have hit the 90s.

"I wonder how this could have happened and am worried about what it does to Brazil's image, especially with the World Cup and Olympics coming up," said Wesley Aragao, a 24-year-old sailor who waited out the blackout at his parents' house in northern Rio. "Nobody likes to be left in the dark."

The Brazilian Olympic Committee would not comment on Tuesday's blackout, but among the guarantees made to the International Olympic Committee is that Rio will be isolated from the nation's power system exactly to avoid problems like this. The city will have its own direct energy feed during the games.

Analysts said the blackout shows Brazil's lack of investment in the power system at a time when Latin America's largest economy is booming. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defended his government from criticism that it has not done enough to improve the power grid since he took office in 2003, two years after Brazil suffered shortages and rationing under his predecessor.
"In seven years, we created 30 percent of all the transmission lines built in the last 130 years," Silva said Wednesday. "There was no shortage of power generation, and the problem was not a lack of transmission lines."

Lobao said Silva's government has invested about $13 billion in the transmission lines, and another $4.7 billion in transformers since 2003.
The energy minister also defended the strength of the Brazilian system -- pointing out that it took a day to fully restore power after a blackout hit the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada in 2003, leaving 50 million people in the dark. He mentioned lengthier blackouts other nations, including Italy and Japan.

It was at least the fourth time since 1985 that Brazil has suffered a massive power outage blamed on transmission line failures from Itaipu, the world's second-largest dam behind China's Three Gorges.

The worst of the Brazilian blackouts occurred in 1999 after lightning struck a power substation in Sao Paulo state, plunging 97 million Brazilians into darkness for up to five hours.
After severe energy shortages and rationing in 2001, Brazil diversified its energy supply. It has seen blackouts since, but none like Tuesday's failure, in which the power outage was more geographically widespread. Analysts say the scope of the blackout was so large because the nation's power grid has become more interconnected, meaning a glitch in one part can affect a wider area.

"There is an absolute failure of infrastructure in terms of energy," said Patrizia Tomasi, an engineer with the Brazilian energy consultancy firm Planck E. "What we are seeing now is only the beginning. There is a need to invest more, to improve how energy is managed by those in the government. We have Itaipu, which is huge, which is great, but there are no lines to transmit all that energy."

Jorge Miguel Samek, the head of Itaipu Binacional, said there was no lack of energy. "The problem was with lightning or a storm that took down some towers," he said.
Energy from Itaipu travels along five high-capacity transmission lines strung up on 2,000 towers each to two substations about 560 miles (900 kilometers) east in Sao Paulo state, according to Itaipu's Web site. From those substations, the energy enters Brazil's national grid and heads to four main regions, the most populous areas of Brazil.

If a transmission line heading to the substations is damaged, a safety mechanism will begin to shut down the power generators at Itaipu, which is what happened Tuesday night, Samek said.
All of which was little solace for those who encountered sudden darkness.
Chaotic traffic in Rio turned even worse, hospitals rushed to find emergency generators to keep intensive care units and emergency rooms operating, and people stayed indoors because of worries about a potential outbreak of violence following intense drug gang wars.

In the city of Bauru in Sao Paulo state, the blackout caused a panic in a neonatal care unit that was without generators.

Five of six babies were quickly transferred to another hospital before a visiting television crew lent the hospital the generator it was carrying. Light from the camera was the only available source in the unit for hours.

The blackouts came when most people were already safely at home. There were no increases in crime in Rio, and Sao Paulo saw a drop in the number of incidents, police said.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Midweek Rain

Ida is done, and now our attention turns to a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

There is a pre-frontal trough (area of clouds and rain ahead of the front) that should swing through Tuesday nigh and Wednesday. It will provide us with a good chance for rain.

Thursday promises to be nice, but the best news if you like cooler weather, is that most models hint at the fact that Thursday night and Friday morning could get cool.

It appears we could be waking up to lows around 59 degrees on Friday morning. A little warmer for the weekend but looking dry, sunny and seasonal.