7-News Exclusive: Obama Leading in Sunshine State

While Congress grapples with a $700 billion dollar financial backstop package to salvage the credit markets, Democrat Barack Obama (46 percent) leads Republican John McCain (42 percent), in the state of Florida, according to a Suffolk University/WSVN-7News Miami poll released today.

"There is an inverse relationship between the financial health and well being of the United States and Barack Obama's political campaign," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "Like a see-saw, the lower the economy goes, the higher Obama's poll numbers. Ultimately, If Florida votes Obama, the rest of the battleground states may not matter."

Comparable polls over the past week have shown the Florida race deadlocked.

The recent Wall Street turmoil has not reflected well on the Republican Party. When likely voters were asked which political party -- if any -- deserved blame for the economic downturn, 39 percent blamed the Republicans; 19 percent blamed Democrats; 24 percent said neither; and 17 percent were undecided.

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin shows only a minimal added benefit to the Republican ticket, while expectations for her performance in tomorrow night's debate are quite low. Forty percent of respondents said that her presence on the ticket made them more likely to vote for John McCain; 36 percent less likely; and 22 percent weren't sure.

Forty-six percent said they expected Democrat Joe Biden to win the vice presidential debate, while 31 percent picked Palin, and 17 percent were undecided.

"The "Biden bar" is quite high in terms of the voter expectation level leading up to his debate performance," said Paleologos. "If Palin were competitive in the debate, or if she were to be perceived as winning, her success could benefit the top of the GOP ticket."

Eighty percent of all Florida likely voters said they planned to watch the debate, and 74 percent said that this debate would be very important or somewhat important in determining whom they will vote for.

Respondents said they trust Obama more than McCain by the slimmest of margins, 45 percent to 44 percent. This is consistent with the 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll of likely New Hampshire voters released last week.

Of the four presidential and vice-presidential candidates, more voters identified with Obama: 32 percent chose him when asked which candidate was "most like you," compared to 23 percent who chose McCain. Obama also led McCain 42 percent to 32 percent when respondents were asked which of the four cares about the problems of people "like you."

A number of voters said they support third-party candidates, with Libertarian Bob Barr the choice of 2 percent of voters polled and Green Party Cynthia McKinney and Ecology Party Ralph Nader each receiving 1 percent.

The top issues for Florida voters were economy/jobs (43 percent), moral values (10 percent), health care (9 percent), Iraq War (9 percent), terrorism (8 percent), and taxes (7 percent).

The Florida bellwethers of Hillsborough & Monroe counties showed Obama leading McCain comfortably, 46 percent to 38 percent. Bellwether IDs are designed to predict outcomes -- not margins -- and to supplement the Suffolk University statewide polls.

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting winners.

AREA

N= 600 100%

North .......................................... 1 ( 1/ 94) 129 22%

Central West ................................... 2 88 15%

Central/Central East ........................... 3 181 30%

South .......................................... 4 202 34%

START

Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for 7NEWS/Suffolk

University and I would like to get your opinions on some political questions.

We are calling Florida households statewide. Would you be willing to spend

three minutes answering some brief questions? (or someone in that

household - ROTATE).

N= 600 100%

Continue ....................................... 1 ( 1/101) 600 100%

GEND

RECORD GENDER

N= 600 100%

Male ........................................... 1 ( 1/102) 288 48%

Female ......................................... 2 312 52%

S1

S1. Are you currently registered to vote?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/103) 600 100%

No ............................................. 2 0 0%

DK/REFUSED/UNDECIDED ........................... 3 0 0%

S2

S2. Thank You. How likely are you to vote in the Presidential Election on

November 4th?

N= 600 100%

Very likely .................................... 1 ( 1/106) 503 84%

Somewhat likely ................................ 2 97 16%

Not very/Not at all likely ..................... 3 0 0%

Other/Undecided/Refused ........................ 4 0 0%

Q1

Q1. And how are you registered to vote - Democrat, Republican, or

Unaffiliated/Independent/Undeclared, or something else?

N= 600 100%

Democrat ....................................... 1 ( 1/109) 253 42%

Republican ..................................... 2 215 36%

Unaffiliated/Independent/Other ................. 3 129 22%

Not registered yet ............................. 4 3 1%

Q2

Q2. What is your age category?

N= 600 100%

18-25 .......................................... 1 ( 1/110) 28 5%

26-35 .......................................... 2 49 8%

36-45 .......................................... 3 101 17%

46-55 .......................................... 4 137 23%

56-65 .......................................... 5 122 20%

66-75 .......................................... 6 103 17%

Over 75 ........................................ 7 57 10%

Refused ........................................ 8 3 1%

Q3

Q3. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

N= 600 100%

White/Caucasian ................................ 1 ( 1/111) 417 70%

African-American ............................... 2 77 13%

Asian .......................................... 3 23 4%

American Indian ................................ 4 16 3%

Hispanic ....................................... 5 51 9%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 6 8 1%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 7 8 1%

Q4

Q4. Which of the following best describes your religion - Roman Catholic,

Protestant, Baptist, Methodist, Jewish, Muslim, other, or non-religious?

N= 600 100%

Roman Catholic ................................. 1 ( 1/112) 180 30%

Protestant ..................................... 2 130 22%

Baptist ........................................ 3 76 13%

Methodist ...................................... 4 25 4%

Jewish ......................................... 5 27 5%

Muslim ......................................... 6 2 0%

Other (DO NOT READ) ............................ 7 80 13%

Non religious (DO NOT READ) .................... 8 38 6%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 9 42 7%

Q5

Q5. Were you a Hillary Clinton supporter originally in the Democratic Primary?

N= 382 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/113) 188 49%

No ............................................. 2 162 42%

Undecided ...................................... 3 28 7%

Refused ........................................ 4 4 1%

Q6

Q6. John McCain chose Sarah Palin {PAY-Lin}, the Governor of Alaska, to be his

Vice Presidential nominee. Does this choice make you more likely or less

likely to vote for John McCain?

N= 600 100%

More Likely .................................... 1 ( 1/114) 238 40%

Less Likely .................................... 2 217 36%

Undecided ...................................... 3 134 22%

Refused ........................................ 4 11 2%

Q7

Q7. Which one of the following issues matters most in deciding your vote for

president?

N= 600 100%

Taxes .......................................... 01 ( 1/115) 41 7%

Education ...................................... 02 38 6%

Iraq War ....................................... 03 53 9%

Terrorism ...................................... 04 45 8%

Economy/Jobs ................................... 05 260 43%

Moral Values ................................... 06 57 10%

Healthcare ..................................... 07 54 9%

Other .......................................... 08 30 5%

Undecided ...................................... 09 22 4%

Refused ........................................ 10 0 0%

Q8

Q8. There are 14 candidates for President on the Florida ballot. Of these, the

major 5 candidates are: Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama,

Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Party Cynthia McKinney, and Ecology Party Ralph

Nader {NAY-der}. At this point, for whom will you vote?

N= 600 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/117) 236 39%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 261 44%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 12 2%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 5 1%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 8 1%

Undecided ...................................... 6 61 10%

Refused ........................................ 7 17 3%

Q9

Q9. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the

election?

N= 522 100%

Mind made up ................................... 1 ( 1/118) 427 82%

Might change ................................... 2 81 16%

Undecided ...................................... 3 14 3%

Refused ........................................ 4 0 0%

Q10

Q10. As of today, who are you leaning toward?

N= 78 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/119) 15 19%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 12 15%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 0 0%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 1 1%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 0 0%

Undecided ...................................... 6 37 47%

Refused ........................................ 7 13 17%

Q8&10 COMBINED

N= 600 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/117) 251 42%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 273 46%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 12 2%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 6 1%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 8 1%

Undecided ...................................... 6 37 6%

Refused ........................................ 7 13 2%

Q11

Q11. Overall, which candidate do you trust more - Barack Obama or John McCain?

N= 600 100%

Obama .......................................... 1 ( 1/120) 271 45%

McCain ......................................... 2 262 44%

Undecided ...................................... 3 57 10%

Refused ........................................ 4 10 2%

Q12

Q12. Which political party - if any - do you blame for the recent turmoil on

Wall Street in the banking and financial sectors?

N= 600 100%

Blame Democrats ................................ 1 ( 1/121) 114 19%

Blame Republicans .............................. 2 232 39%

Neither ........................................ 3 145 24%

Undecided ...................................... 4 101 17%

Refused ........................................ 5 8 1%

Q13

Q13. The four candidates for President and Vice President in both the

Democratic and Republican Party are very different people. When thinking about

Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain, or Sarah Palin, which candidate of the

four do you believe is most like you?

N= 600 100%

Barack Obama ................................... 1 ( 1/122) 191 32%

Joe Biden ...................................... 2 89 15%

John McCain .................................... 3 139 23%

Sarah Palin .................................... 4 91 15%

Undecided ...................................... 5 77 13%

Refused ........................................ 6 13 2%

Q14

Q14. Which of the four - Obama, Biden, McCain, or Palin - understands and

cares about the problems of people like you?

N= 600 100%

Barack Obama ................................... 1 ( 1/123) 249 42%

Joe Biden ...................................... 2 45 8%

John McCain .................................... 3 189 32%

Sarah Palin .................................... 4 49 8%

Undecided ...................................... 5 49 8%

Refused ........................................ 6 13 2%

None ........................................... 7 6 1%

Q15

Q15. Do you plan to watch the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday evening,

October 2nd?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/124) 481 80%

No ............................................. 2 71 12%

Undecided ...................................... 3 45 8%

Refused ........................................ 4 3 1%

Q16

Q16. How important will the debate be to whom you ultimately vote for - very

important, somewhat important, or not important?

N= 481 100%

Very important ................................. 1 ( 1/125) 211 44%

Somewhat important ............................. 2 143 30%

Not important .................................. 3 122 25%

Undecided ...................................... 4 5 1%

Refused ........................................ 5 0 0%

Q17

Q17. Compared to other debates in the past, how important is this debate to

you - more important, less important, or no different?

N= 481 100%

More important ................................. 1 ( 1/126) 219 46%

Less important ................................. 2 56 12%

No different/same .............................. 3 204 42%

Undecided ...................................... 4 2 0%

Refused ........................................ 5 0 0%

Q18

Q18. Who do you expect will win the debate - Biden or Palin?

N= 481 100%

Biden .......................................... 1 ( 1/127) 220 46%

Palin .......................................... 2 148 31%

Neither ........................................ 3 29 6%

Undecided ...................................... 4 84 17%

Refused ........................................ 5 0 0%

Q19

Q19. Regardless of how you would vote, how comfortable would you be with

Barack Obama as president ?

N= 600 100%

Extremely comfortable .......................... 1 ( 1/128) 167 28%

Very comfortable ............................... 2 126 21%

Somewhat comfortable ........................... 3 126 21%

Not at all comfortable ......................... 4 140 23%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 30 5%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 11 2%

Q20

Q20. Regardless of how you would vote, how comfortable would you be with John

McCain as president ?

N= 600 100%

Extremely comfortable .......................... 1 ( 1/129) 114 19%

Very comfortable ............................... 2 142 24%

Somewhat comfortable ........................... 3 144 24%

Not at all comfortable ......................... 4 170 28%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 23 4%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 7 1%

Q21

Q21. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion of the upcoming

Presidential election:

N= 600 100%

It's the most important election of my life .... 1 ( 1/130) 222 37%

It's very important but not the most important . 2 242 40%

It's no different than any other presidential .. 3 98 16%

election

It's not really that important to me ........... 4 16 3%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 19 3%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 3 1%

Q22. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as

president?

N= 600 100%

Approve ........................................ 1 ( 1/131) 150 25%

Disapprove ..................................... 2 381 64%

Undecided ...................................... 3 62 10%

Refused ........................................ 4 7 1%

Q23

Q23. When all the votes are counted in November of 2008, who do you think will

be our next President? (Not necessarily who you are voting for but who do you

think will be the next President?) - Barack Obama or John McCain?

N= 600 100%

Obama .......................................... 1 ( 1/132) 283 47%

McCain ......................................... 2 214 36%

Undecided ...................................... 3 97 16%

Refused ........................................ 4 6 1%

Q24

Q24. Has anyone in your household ever served in the U.S. military?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/133) 272 45%

No ............................................. 2 310 52%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 3 15 3%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 4 3 1%

Q25

Q25. Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/134) 151 25%

No ............................................. 2 432 72%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 3 13 2%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 4 4 1%

Q26

Q26. In the 2004 presidential election, did you vote for:...

N= 600 100%

John Kerry - Democrat .......................... 1 ( 1/135) 237 40%

George Bush - Republican ....................... 2 259 43%

Ralph Nader - Reform ........................... 3 21 4%

Did not vote (DO NOT READ) ..................... 4 47 8%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 23 4%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 13 2%

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Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.