7-News Exclusive: Florida could swing in Obama's favor

MIAMI (WSVN) -- Seven News has teamed up with one of the top pollsters in the country to see who's leading the race in Florida. The results of this poll are in, and they are likely to send a thunderbolt through the Sunshine State.

The bottom line? If you thought we lived in a largely Republican and McCain-For-President state, this poll says, think again.

A Seven News/Suffolk University poll is ringing the bell for Barack Obama. "This poll is potentially an inflection point for the entire national race," said David Paleologos of Suffolk University.

The pollsters, who were the only ones to predict Hillary Clinton's upset win in New Hampshire, are laying out Florida's numbers 46 percent for Barack Obama and 42 percent for John McCain.

In Florida's high stakes, it's all about undecided voters. The Seven News/Suffolk poll asked: "Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election?" Eighty-two percent said their mind is made up, while only 16 percent said they might change their mind, and a mere three percent of respondents admitted they were entirely undecided.

The bottom line, according to this poll, if the election happened today in Florida, it would be game over for McCain. "Clearly the margin of four percent is something that I think will send shock waves through the country," said Paleologos, "because, if this state goes Obama, the rest of the battleground states aren't going to matter."

According to Suffolk, the numbers came out this way because it all comes down to your pocketbook. Florida voters revealed a clear sway for Obama on money matters. "As the economy drops in terms of severity, Obama's numbers are correspondingly going up," Paleologos said, "and there's a genuine sense of trust with Obama right now."

Trust-- a hot button question in the poll. Respondents were asked, "Overall, which candidate do you trust more, Barack Obama or John McCain?" Forty-five percent said they trust Obama, while 44 percent prefer to trust McCain. Twelve percent of participants said they are undecided or refused to answer the question.

Again, Florida numbers swayed to Obama. "The difference is that the trust number usually runs about four or five points better for McCain than the ballot test number, and in this case, we see the trust number closing, and correspondingly, Obama's lead rising," explained Paleologos.

There is a big caveat to all of this: Sarah Palin. Florida voters overwhelmingly said they will keep a close eye on Palin's performance in Thursday's vice presidential debates. If she does well... "If Sarah Palin makes a credible performance or even wins the debate then I think we'll have an opportunity to see the numbers close again, driven by the Palin influence," said Paleologos.

The Palin influence showed big for McCain with Florida voters. For the McCain camp, the poll shows the election could literally rest on Palin's ability to take on Joe Biden in the debate arena. "People say they're more likely to support Sarah Palin. We also know they are going to watch the vice-presidential debate and say that it is either very or somewhat important to their ultimate vote," said Paleologos. "Given that and the low expectation number going in, Sarah Palin has a huge opportunity to make up a big difference here."

And if Palin fails against Biden, pollsters say, Florida leaders like Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez will have to pound the remaining political pavement to try and bring McCain's numbers up in Florida once again.

Florida is promising to be the final battleground for would-be presidents, and voters look to be holding the golden ticket. "If Florida goes Obama, you're going to see an amazing shift in the red/blue map," said Paleologos.

Of course one must consider a four percent margin of error with this poll, which would put us again at a statistical dead heat.

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