Tropics and More
Posted by Brent Cameron
We're keeping tabs on distant Ernesto and Florence. As of this writing, both systems are at tropical storm strength. However, one may get stronger (soon) while the other gets much weaker (soon, as well).
Tropical Storm Ernesto is now in the western Caribbean with very little impacting its development. Having said that, the close proximity of land (and some drier air to its west) may hold back overall potential growth on Monday and Tuesday. Eventually, it's likely to make landfall on either the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It may even approach with hurricane strength. By the way, any extra power will depend on both its track and speed (whether it slows down enough to grow).
Tropical Storm Florence is undergoing some real problems: dry air is choking-off the low level circulation and wind shear is interacting with it. There is a decent chance that Florence will be downgraded to a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Then, further weakening seems likely... as it attempts the journey across the Atlantic Ocean. We'll watch whatever distant spin remains, as the week continues.
Locally, another batch of deep tropical moisture is making an impact. Scattered rain with heavy "tropical type" downpours will be the pattern through Monday, and possibly lingering into Tuesday. Then, some steady drying with fewer showers and storms is in the forecast for the middle of the week.