Posted by Brent Cameron
A weak tropical wave is moving away with very little fanfare. The main axis of the wave extends south of the Straits into the Caribbean Sea. Still, there's a good amount of tropical moisture in its wake, and that deep moisture could lead to a few downpours as the weekend continues.
In the distance, maps show a sizeable area of drier-type air... currently east of the Bahamas. If this drier batch can hold together as it moves toward Florida, we'll see fewer showers and storms from Monday through Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will try to rebuild over the western Atlantic during the first half of the week. We'll expect an onshore air flow with less rain along the southeast coast (and some limited inland storms that push west, too). This pattern probably won't last all week. Most of the forecast models call for high pressure weakening with a return to moist southerly air. We may also see the return of significant rain by the late week and weekend. Stay tuned.
The Tropics remain nice and quiet, largely due to the presence of a lot of dry air expanding over both the Caribbean and Atlantic waters.