Tropics Come Alive
Posted by Brent Cameron
After a lengthy lull in the Tropics, a more seasonal pattern has returned. Late on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center issued their first advisory on Tropical Depression Eleven. Where is it? Far from any land whatsoever! The depression is smack-dab in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The depression is relatively small, as it drifts northward at a slow speed. The official forecast has the depression getting stronger either Sunday or Monday, before ultimately weakening during the week. Its only impact will be on the shipping lanes, and it is not a threat for the United States coastline. In fact, it probably won't get any closer than it is right now... and that's 1900 miles away!
Of more importance is a separate disturbance that may get brewing in the Caribbean Sea... in a few days. Currently, there's just a large area of clouds and rain (over much of the southwestern Caribbean). Conditions are presently NOT conducive for a tropical cyclone to form. However, by the middle of the week that could change. Some forecast models have the disturbance as a healthy tropical wave that pushes toward Central America and the Yucatan peninsula. Other models have it developing into a stronger feature while tracking into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, we'll need to keep an eye on the "tropical Caribbean" throughout the early week period (and beyond). Of course, water temperatures are very warm and something could easily spin-up into trouble. Reality check: even though the 2013 Hurricane Season has been benign, to this point... we cannot let our guard down.