Posted by Brent Cameron
Former Tropical Storm Karen has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The system remains over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but it has lost much of its punch. As a result of its weakening trend, the National Hurricane Center has discontinued tropical storm warnings and watches all along the Gulf coast!
The combination of wind shear and dry air will continue to create problems for "what's left of Karen". On Sunday and Monday, the remnants will likely merge with a cold front and absorb the system altogether.
The same front that will intercept Karen will be approaching Florida in the coming days. While there's high confidence in the front working southward through our state, there's differing opinions for the result. Some of our forecast models show the front pressing rapidly into south Florida (with some moist air ahead of it and quick drying behing it). Other models, however, show a slower-moving boundary that remains draped across our state for several days (with daily rain showers and storms). What we do know is that our wind direction will turn more southerly (soon) and there WILL BE a continued rain chance as long as the front hangs around. Expect at least scattered showers with storms starting on Monday. Then, once the front dissipates (probably during the middle of the week) high pressure will rebuild and humidity levels will fall.